Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
Dave: Right on cue, investors are finally turning bullish…after stocks stage a significant rally
Source: AAII as of 06.16.2023
Dave: though their bearishness was right in line with most of Wall Street
Data as of May 2023
Dave: Outside of megacap tech, valuations aren’t so crazy
Data as of May 2023
Brad: and holders of the broader market of stocks are hoping for at least some restoration of historical norms
Data as of 05.31.2023
Dave: especially those holding boring old dividend-payers
Source: Strategas as of 06.21.2023
Dave: Home inventory is super-tight, with few willing to give up their existing mortgage
Data as of June 2023
Dave: which would normally lead to bidding wars if not for the historically high cost to buy
Source: Strategas as of 06.20.2023
John Luke: The Bank of England is back on the offensive to fight persistent inflation
Data as of 06.20.2023
Beckham: and even historically deflationary Japan is seeing inflation on the rise
Data as of 06.20.2023
Brad: We’ve not had many examples of sustained equity rallies with inverted yield curves
Source: Strategas as of 06.16.2023
Joseph: and the reward/risk of soft landing vs. recession is seen as pretty unfavorable by much of Wall Street
Dave: Recession or not, stocks are pricing in solid but not spectacular earnings coming out of the recent weakness
Data as of 06.20.23
John Luke: which seems a minimum requirement given the lack of equity risk premium currently available to investors
Data as of 06.16.2023
Mark: This year’s market has been different from recent years, with most of the gains occurring during trading hours not overnight
Source: Raymond James as of 06.20.2023
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