Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
Brian: The story of US economic strength has been the growing wealth of the consumer
Source: Aptus via Federal Reserve Data as of March 2024
Dave: with liquid assets staying high for all but the lowest-income group
Source: Piper Sandler as of April 2024
Beckham: and debt service running at low levels
Data as of May 2024
Dave: as most of the debt is tied to fixed (lower) interest rates
Source: Strategas as of 06.21.2024
Brett: all of which has seemingly made this FOMC tightening cycle less effective than normal
Data as of 06.26.2024
Joseph: Adding to the Fed’s resistance to cutting rates is the sharp rise in consumer beliefs on inflation, especially for lower-income groups
Source: Apollo as of May 2024
John Luke: and a tight labor market that doesn’t seem to need stimulus
Data as of June 2024
John Luke: with a credit market priced for low corporate defaults
Source: KKR
John Luke: Where potential trouble exists is in the US federal budget
John Luke: where outlays are pulling higher, away from revenues
Source: WSJ as of 06.22.2024
John Luke: and interest expense now exceeds the amount spent on defense
Data as of May 2024
Brian: The consistent deficits have seemingly contributed to an environment favoring stocks over bonds
Source: Aptus via Bloomberg as of 05.31.2024
Brian: which has only accelerated the trend going back before the global financial crisis
Source: Aptus via Bloomberg as of 05.31.2024
Arch: The environment of late has been towards divergent outcomes across stocks and sectors
Dave: but there’s been enough strength across larger names to support a continuation of the S&P 500’s advance
Source: Strategas as of 06.25.2024
Joseph: However US consumers feel about the state of the economy, they sure are making plans to expand their travel
Source: Strategas as of 06.27.2024
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Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.
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