Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

Brian: The story of US economic strength has been the growing wealth of the consumer


Source: Aptus via Federal Reserve Data as of March 2024


Dave: with liquid assets staying high for all but the lowest-income group


Source: Piper Sandler as of April 2024


Beckham: and debt service running at low levels


Data as of May 2024


Dave: as most of the debt is tied to fixed (lower) interest rates


Source: Strategas as of 06.21.2024


Brett: all of which has seemingly made this FOMC tightening cycle less effective than normal


Data as of 06.26.2024


Joseph: Adding to the Fed’s resistance to cutting rates is the sharp rise in consumer beliefs on inflation, especially for lower-income groups


Source: Apollo as of May 2024


John Luke: and a tight labor market that doesn’t seem to need stimulus


Data as of June 2024


John Luke: with a  credit market priced for low corporate defaults


Source: KKR


John Luke: Where potential trouble exists is in the US federal budget



John Luke: where outlays are pulling higher, away from revenues


Source: WSJ as of 06.22.2024


John Luke: and interest expense now exceeds the amount spent on defense


Data as of May 2024


Brian: The consistent deficits have seemingly contributed to an environment favoring stocks over bonds


Source: Aptus via Bloomberg as of 05.31.2024


Brian: which has only accelerated the trend going back before the global financial crisis


Source: Aptus via Bloomberg as of 05.31.2024


Arch: The environment of late has been towards divergent outcomes across stocks and sectors



Dave: but there’s been enough strength across larger names to support a continuation of the S&P 500’s advance


Source: Strategas as of 06.25.2024


Joseph: However US consumers feel about the state of the economy, they sure are making plans to expand their travel


Source: Strategas as of 06.27.2024






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