Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
John Luke: The cleanest story since the October low has been decelerating headline inflation, which lines up with the history of stocks and CPI
Source: The Market Ear June 2023
Dave: and while headline CPI has been way up and now way down, Core CPI has been stable at a high rate for 2 years now
Data as of June 2023
John Luke: Rate expectations have been fully restored to their standing ahead of the March banking crisis
Source: Raymond James as of 06.28.2023
John Luke: as the idea of a July rate hike went completely away but is now commonly accepted again
Source: Bianco as of 06.29.2023
John Luke: Consensus earnings have flatlined awaiting direction, both in YOY change and in direction of estimates
Source: The Market Ear as of 06.26.2023
Dave: with a similarly mixed outlook in Europe
Source: Morgan Stanley as of 06.26.2023
Brad: High yield spreads remain tight despite calls for a recession
Source: Strategas as of 06.26.2023
Derek: perhaps due to more discriminating lending standards
Data as of June 2023
James: The broader market of stocks is still far short of typical rallies from bear market lows
Source: Investech as of 06.12.2023
Derek: but the bounce has been enough to finally pull a large number of bears from the sidelines
Source: Goldman Sachs as of June 2023
Brad: It’s important to remember that the stock market is not the economy, especially when thinking about large-cap multinationals
Source: Strategas as of June 2023
Dave: but pundits still spend the bulk of their time trying to match the two
Source: Sevens Report as of 06.26.2023
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