Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
Dave: The divergence between non farm payroll data and the household survey continues to be an example of the divergent thinking regarding economic strength
Source: Raymond James as of 06.06.2024
Dave: with the consumer continuing to spend at a decent pace
Source: Raymond James as of 06.03.2024
Brian: but GDP is tracking high or low depending on the week
Source: Aptus via Atlanta Fed
Brett: and the odds of a recession fall
Source: Apollo as of 06.06.2024
Arch: but some regional measures of manufacturing are falling deep into contraction territory
Data as of 05.31.2024
Beckham: and global measures are rising in unison
Source: S&P Global as of 06.03.2024
Joseph: but job openings in the US continuing to retreat from historic post-COVID highs
Data as of May 2024
Brad: Another area of divergence is in the contrast between megacap tech stocks and the broader market
Joseph: partly due to the impact of rates on the broader list of companies
Source: WSJ as of 06.04.2024
Brad: but also, just the incredible performance of NVDA and its contribution to S&P 500 returns
Source: Strategas as of 06.04.2024
Brett: and while the concentration is approaching extremes, the risk in the past has been when that concentration retreats
Data as of January 2024
Dave: Most important for stocks is that they grow their earnings, and trends are improving
Data as of 05.31.2024
Arch: which can hopefully start to offset the outsized impact rates have had on the broader market
Source: @matthew_miskin as of 06.03.2024
Dave: Presidential election years have generally been solid, but volatility has historically risen as the election approached
Data as of May 2024
Brad: that said, we’ve just entered the most favorable 3-month window of past election years
Data as of May 2024
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