Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

Dave: The divergence between non farm payroll data and the household survey continues to be an example of the divergent thinking regarding economic strength


Source: Raymond James as of 06.06.2024


Dave: with the consumer continuing to spend at a decent pace


Source: Raymond James as of 06.03.2024


Brian: but GDP is tracking high or low depending on the week


Source: Aptus via Atlanta Fed


Brett: and the odds of a recession fall

Source: Apollo as of 06.06.2024


Arch: but some regional measures of manufacturing are falling deep into contraction territory


Data as of 05.31.2024


Beckham: and global measures are rising in unison


Source: S&P Global as of 06.03.2024


Joseph: but job openings in the US continuing to retreat from historic post-COVID highs


Data as of May 2024



Brad: Another area of divergence is in the contrast between megacap tech stocks and the broader market



Joseph: partly due to the impact of rates on the broader list of companies


Source: WSJ as of 06.04.2024


Brad: but also, just the incredible performance of NVDA and its contribution to S&P 500 returns


Source: Strategas as of 06.04.2024


Brett: and while the concentration is approaching extremes, the risk in the past has been when that concentration retreats


Data as of January 2024


Dave: Most important for stocks is that they grow their earnings, and trends are improving


Data as of 05.31.2024


Arch: which can hopefully start to offset the outsized impact rates have had on the broader market


Source: @matthew_miskin as of 06.03.2024


Dave: Presidential election years have generally been solid, but volatility has historically risen as the election approached


Data as of May 2024


Brad: that said, we’ve just entered the most favorable 3-month window of past election years


Data as of May 2024




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