Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from the US market correction to investor sentiment to tariffs and relative strength in foreign markets. Enjoy!
Brett: 10% market corrections have historically happened every year or so, but only 4 in the past 75 years fell faster than this one
Source: FS Insight as of 03.13.2025
John Luke: Looking further back in history, just one in four 10% corrections turns into an actual bear market drop of 20% or more
Source: Day Hagan as of 03.11.2025
Brad: You can see how this selloff ranks among recent growth scares, tame to this point
Source: Raymond James as of 03.12.2025
Beckham: and absent recession, stocks have had decent intermediate-term responses to 10% corrections
Data as of 03.11.2025
Jake: This correction has been marked by what seems to be historically high bearish sentiment among individual investors
Data as of 03.12.2025
Arch: which is showing up in mainstream measures of sentiment as well
Source: CNN
Joseph: Speaking of sentiment, it’s not just investors but Main Street folks that are being swayed by the daily barrage of headlines
Arch: with business owners seemingly waiting for some policy clarity before committing to new growth plans
Data as of 03.12.2025
Brad: The bite of tariff impact may well end up less impactful than the bark, but still a potential drag on growth
Source: Strategas as of 03.12.2025
Dave: and we’ve seen analysts extrapolate tariff mentions into lower earnings estimates for the first part of this year
Data via Daily Chartbook as of 03.07.2025
John Luke: Not surprisingly, one thing we do know is that buyers stocked up on potentially tariffed items ahead of expected start dates
Data as of 03.07.2025
Brian: US stocks have enjoyed a 15-year advantage over foreign stocks, mostly tied to superior earnings growth
Data as of 03.10.2025
Joseph: which makes this year’s flip barely a speck in the long-term comparisons
Data as of 03.12.2025
Brad: That said, recent earnings revisions are actually showing signs that there could be more than just a sentiment flip behind the recent foreign market strength
Data as of 03.12.2025
Brian: and if you’ve been an investor in what was probably the least-favored idea (European value), the performance difference vs. US growth has been eye-popping
Data as of 03.12.2025
John Luke: FOMC policy has taken a rare backseat during this correction, but they’ll be meeting next week and sharing plans for their approach to inflation that seems to have settled above their stated target
Data as of 03.12.2025
JD: and a longer-term look at the cost of services may be growing slower than the 2022 peak, but remains a constant drag on purchasing power
Data as of 03.12.2025
Joseph: To this point of the correction, actual business fundamentals have taken a backseat to fear and uncertainty
Source: Piper Sandler as of 03.11.2025
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