Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
Derek: Hopefully the first and last time we need to share SIVB charts, but in hindsight it stood out
Source: Bloomberg as of 03.11.2023
Dave: and banks can differ quite a bit on the % of deposits falling under FDIC thresholds
Data as of 03.11.2022
John Luke: The bond market equivalent of the VIX is the MOVE Index, and it’s been rising quickly
Source: Bloomberg as of 03.16.23
John Luke: as stress works its way into fixed income products that fund endless projects
Source: Bianco Research as of 03.13.23
John Luke: Markets have dramatically moved away from the targets discussed by the Fed in recent weeks
Source: Bloomberg as of 03.15.2023
John Luke: as seen in the historic moves in short-term rates over the past week
Data as of 03.15.2023
John Luke: and odds of a 25 bps hike at next week’s meeting have been all over the board but seemingly still on
Source: FedWatch as of 03.15.2023
Brad: While the mythical “No Landing” appears off the table, this sort of hiking cycle has been more common in hard landings not soft ones
Source: Piper as of 03.16.2023
John Luke: at a time when markets are quickly unwinding the massive yield curve inversion
Source: Strategas as of 03.16.2023
Brad: Good historical perspective on where we stand today vs. history, on inflation, yields, valuations, tax rates, and growth
Source: Strategas as of 03.13.2023
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