Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from the US market correction to the economy to sentiment and tariffs and global money flows. Enjoy!
Brett: After two years of supporting prices, the willingness of investors to pay up for stocks looks increasingly reliant on earnings growth in the period ahead
Beckham: and the direction of stocks after 10% corrections looks heavily tied to whether or not the economy goes into a recession
Source: Daily Chartbook as of 03.19.2025
Brad: “Correction without a recession” seems to be the evidence-based call, as past recessions had already seen earnings deteriorate while today we still have solid earnings growth
Source: Strategas as of 03.17.2025
John Luke: that said, stock market conditions could play a higher role in damaging spending
Data as of 03.14.2025
Joseph: and housing shows no signs of driving growth
Data as of 03.17.2025
JD: Strategists generally hug the middle and skip the tails when forecasting year-ahead market levels
Jake: and right now the S&P 500 sits just above the lower end of the range of forecasts
Source: @kevrgordon via Daily Chartbook
Mark: For some near-term encouragement, by sentiment measures we may have washed out much of the excess optimism
Dave: and strung together some signs of strength after hitting the 10% correction marker
Data as of 03.17.2025
Brad: There’s no denying that tariffs will have some level of impact on U.S. corporate earnings in the year ahead
Source: Strategas as of 03.18.2025
Brad: but despite year-to-date market activity, the direct impact on the U.S. economy is far less than the other regions involved
Brian: The global move from popular to unpopular names has been amazing
Data as of 03.20.2025
Arch: but at this point, not exactly a secret
Data as of 03.14.2025
Brian: Friendly reminder, the short-term safety of cash can become a real risk if held
Source: Aptus Data via Bloomberg
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