Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
John Luke: The market sure seems to think the Fed is done hiking
Source: Bianco as of 03.22.2023
Joseph: and with the Fed’s forecasting record, it might make sense to follow the market’s lead
Source: Bianco as of 03.21.2023
John Luke: After an unprecedented series of hikes into an inverted yield curve
Source: Strategas as of 03.21.2023
Dave: markets now face the challenge of the backside of a hiking cycle
Source: Strategas as of 03.22.2023
Beckham: and a “not yet” potential easing cycle
Source: BNP Paribas as of 03.17.2023
John Luke: Market breadth is separating to the downside from the S&P 500
Source: Harvest Investor as of 03.20.2023
John Luke: as investors flock to the old MAGA names
Source: Goldman Sachs as of 03.21.2023
Dave: and active fund managers resume their position trailing behind major indices
Source: Strategas as of 03.21.2023
John Luke: The fears of those fund managers have flipped from rising rates to a credit crash
Source: BofA as of 03.21.2023
Dave: with this particular phase of the economy having a history of struggles
Data as of 03.21.2023
Brad: and historical recession warning lights flashing clearly
Source: Strategas as of 03.22.2023
Dave: 2022 looks to have ushered in an environment providing less cover than the negatively-correlating zig-zagging of bonds vs. stocks
Source: Strategas as of 03.20.2023
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