Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from investor sentiment to the US market correction to earnings and, of course, tariffs. Enjoy!
John Luke: Hard to know the proper reaction for stocks, but hard to believe this episode is up there with the biggest “uncertainty” windows of the past 40 years
Brad: but there is no single measure of sentiment capable of confirming whether markets have overreacted
Data as of 03.26.2025
Beckham: one thing we know is that US equities have still attracted the lion’s share of ETF inflows
Data as of 03.26.2025
Arch: Stocks have hit the 10% correction marker. History has shown a wide range of outcomes from that level.
John Luke: there’s not only a range of market outcomes, but a split between recessionary environments vs. non-recessionary
Data as of 03.25.2025
John Luke: with economic expansions being a distinguishing factor in fostering better equity performance in future years
Data as of February 2025
Brad: Regarding the economy, we’ve yet to see signs of credit markets forecasting any severe risks
Source: Strategas
Brad: and a look at a broader set of economic data currently confirms the same underlying strength
Source: Sevens Report as of 03.26.2025
Brett: The valuation of the median S&P 500 stock is right at its 10 year average
Source: @kevrgordon as of 03.24.2025
John Luke: and the “average” stock has finally been showing strength relative to the formerly leading Mag 7 megacap tech stocks
Source: Strategas
Brian: that said, it’s hard for a market as concentrated as the S&P 500 to make significant headway without stabilization of its biggest components
Joseph: It’s no secret that US stocks have dominated European stocks for years, and investor flows since COVID have only accelerated the split
Dave: but we’ve recently seen improvement in the earnings outlook for foreign companies relative to US companies
Brian: The years since the global financial crisis have seen massive investment in US markets at the expense of most regions around the globe
Brett: but whether it’s fundamentals or just a mean-reversion trade, winners and losers have totally flipped in Q1
Source: Bespoke as of 03.27.2025
Joseph: It seems like we’re at the point where the impact of potential tariffs can start to be quantified
Source: TS Lombard as of 03.24.2025
John Luke: but for all of the hysteria surrounding tariffs, the US economy is far less tied to trade than most countries
Source: Strategas
Dave: What’s ultimately going to matter for stocks is the growth of earnings, and how strong margins can remain
Data via RenMac as of January 2025
John Luke: and investors seem to be questioning this, given how much of the US growth and profit dominance has been tied to government spending
Source: Bloomberg as of January 2025
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