The Market in Pictures, March 29

by | Mar 29, 2024 | Blog, Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

 

Brett: It’s been a historic equity rally these past few months, here’s where this one sits relative to others

 

Source: SentimenTrader as of 03.26.2024

 

Dave: ironically, against that equity rally it’s been bond funds attracting a good chunk of inflows

 

Source: Strategas as of 03.25.2024

 

Beckham: Also interesting, this equity cycle lines up pretty tightly to the history of past election cycles

    

Data as of 03.25.2024

 

Dave: and while party winner rarely drives market outcomes, there are a handful of issues that could play a role in separating winners and losers

 

Data as of March 2024

 

Brad: The other cycle that’s bringing optimism to stocks is the earnings cycle, which to this point has been pretty narrow just like sector performance

 

Source: 3Fourteen Research as of 03.15.2024

 

Dave: with the expected earnings inflection particularly sharp for small-caps

 

Data as of 03.18.2024

 

John Luke: We’re seeing a steady increase in the number of states seeing employment weakness

 

Data as of 03.26.2024

 

Joseph: and we know the yield curve has been inverted far longer than normal, which in the past has tipped off recessions

 

Data as of 03.16.2024

 

John Luke: but for all of the worries, there has been no indication in the credit market, where one would expect trouble to first appear

 

Source: CBOE as of 03.25.2024

 

John Luke: Despite the explosion of government debt, U.S. GDP has so far managed to outpace the growth of that debt

  

Data as of 03.20.2024

 

Brad: with that GDP supported by the strength of the consumer, and their (low) fixed-rate debt and high rates earned on savings during this hiking cycle

 

Data as of 03.22.2024

 

John Luke: One area that doesn’t seem to be seeing the same positive impact is the banking sector

 

Data as of 03.13.2024

 

Dave: and they’ll now see a borrowing window close on them, one that was opened during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis

 

Source: Strategas as of 03.25.2024

 

Brian: Global benchmarks look a whole lot different than they did a century ago

 

 

Dave: and a lot of the “valuation discount” is simply a function of other countries lacking the higher-valued tech companies that make the U.S. their home

 

Source: BofA as of 03.15.2024

 

Dave: It’s important for investors to keep an open mind while also remembering that more things can happen than will happen

 

Source: Strategas as of 03.16.2024

 

Disclosures

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.

 Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.

 This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment & tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.

 Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2404-35.

 

Explore the Aptus Blog

Advisory services offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198.

Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama.

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aptus Capital Advisors (“Aptus”) and/or the individual Aptus Employee being interviewed as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Aptus reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs and there is no guarantee that such assessments of investments will be accurate. There is no guarantee that strategies or recommendations will equal or exceed any expectations or goals discussed. The discussions, outlook, and viewpoints featured are not intended to be investment advice and do not take into account specific client investment objectives.

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aptus Capital Advisors (“Aptus”) and are subject to change without notice.

Aptus social media posts, including third party material, are provided for information purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security, product or service. Aptus posts are based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate and do not purport to be a complete summary of the available data. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Aptus does not endorse or take responsibility for any content, advertising, products, advice, opinions, recommendations, or other materials posted by followers or other third parties on Aptus’ social media sites. Any comments or opinions posted by another user should be attributed to that user and not Aptus.

Aptus is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aptus including our investment strategies, fees and objectives can be found in our ADV Part 2, which is available at www.aptuscapitaladvisors.com or by calling 251.517.7198.

Enhancing Outcomes

Your job is to help clients meet their goals. Part of that is capturing the compounding power of markets, part is making sure the path matches client expectations. How portfolios get from point A to point B matters.