Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
Brett: It’s been a historic equity rally these past few months, here’s where this one sits relative to others
Source: SentimenTrader as of 03.26.2024
Dave: ironically, against that equity rally it’s been bond funds attracting a good chunk of inflows
Source: Strategas as of 03.25.2024
Beckham: Also interesting, this equity cycle lines up pretty tightly to the history of past election cycles
Data as of 03.25.2024
Dave: and while party winner rarely drives market outcomes, there are a handful of issues that could play a role in separating winners and losers
Data as of March 2024
Brad: The other cycle that’s bringing optimism to stocks is the earnings cycle, which to this point has been pretty narrow just like sector performance
Source: 3Fourteen Research as of 03.15.2024
Dave: with the expected earnings inflection particularly sharp for small-caps
Data as of 03.18.2024
John Luke: We’re seeing a steady increase in the number of states seeing employment weakness
Data as of 03.26.2024
Joseph: and we know the yield curve has been inverted far longer than normal, which in the past has tipped off recessions
Data as of 03.16.2024
John Luke: but for all of the worries, there has been no indication in the credit market, where one would expect trouble to first appear
Source: CBOE as of 03.25.2024
John Luke: Despite the explosion of government debt, U.S. GDP has so far managed to outpace the growth of that debt
Data as of 03.20.2024
Brad: with that GDP supported by the strength of the consumer, and their (low) fixed-rate debt and high rates earned on savings during this hiking cycle
Data as of 03.22.2024
John Luke: One area that doesn’t seem to be seeing the same positive impact is the banking sector
Data as of 03.13.2024
Dave: and they’ll now see a borrowing window close on them, one that was opened during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis
Source: Strategas as of 03.25.2024
Brian: Global benchmarks look a whole lot different than they did a century ago
Dave: and a lot of the “valuation discount” is simply a function of other countries lacking the higher-valued tech companies that make the U.S. their home
Source: BofA as of 03.15.2024
Dave: It’s important for investors to keep an open mind while also remembering that more things can happen than will happen
Source: Strategas as of 03.16.2024
Disclosures
Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.
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