Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:


Brett: It’s been a historic equity rally these past few months, here’s where this one sits relative to others


Source: SentimenTrader as of 03.26.2024


Dave: ironically, against that equity rally it’s been bond funds attracting a good chunk of inflows


Source: Strategas as of 03.25.2024


Beckham: Also interesting, this equity cycle lines up pretty tightly to the history of past election cycles


Data as of 03.25.2024


Dave: and while party winner rarely drives market outcomes, there are a handful of issues that could play a role in separating winners and losers


Data as of March 2024


Brad: The other cycle that’s bringing optimism to stocks is the earnings cycle, which to this point has been pretty narrow just like sector performance


Source: 3Fourteen Research as of 03.15.2024


Dave: with the expected earnings inflection particularly sharp for small-caps


Data as of 03.18.2024


John Luke: We’re seeing a steady increase in the number of states seeing employment weakness


Data as of 03.26.2024


Joseph: and we know the yield curve has been inverted far longer than normal, which in the past has tipped off recessions


Data as of 03.16.2024


John Luke: but for all of the worries, there has been no indication in the credit market, where one would expect trouble to first appear


Source: CBOE as of 03.25.2024


John Luke: Despite the explosion of government debt, U.S. GDP has so far managed to outpace the growth of that debt


Data as of 03.20.2024


Brad: with that GDP supported by the strength of the consumer, and their (low) fixed-rate debt and high rates earned on savings during this hiking cycle


Data as of 03.22.2024


John Luke: One area that doesn’t seem to be seeing the same positive impact is the banking sector


Data as of 03.13.2024


Dave: and they’ll now see a borrowing window close on them, one that was opened during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis


Source: Strategas as of 03.25.2024


Brian: Global benchmarks look a whole lot different than they did a century ago



Dave: and a lot of the “valuation discount” is simply a function of other countries lacking the higher-valued tech companies that make the U.S. their home


Source: BofA as of 03.15.2024


Dave: It’s important for investors to keep an open mind while also remembering that more things can happen than will happen


Source: Strategas as of 03.16.2024




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