Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are contributing to investor activity, from strength in foreign markets to correction talk to the economy and FOMC policy. Enjoy!
Brian: It’s been quite the year for stocks in developed markets outside of the US
Brad: this comes after more than a decade of underperformance of both developed and developing markets relative to the US
Beckham: and concurrent with strength in the much-maligned Euro currency, at the expense of the US Dollar
Data as of 03.05.2025
Brett: US stocks have pulled back over 5% since making highs two weeks ago, a common occurrence inside of a long bull market
Data as of 03.04.2025
Arch: Just over two months into 2025, the year-to-date action has resembled typical patterns following a presidential election
Data as of 03.05.2025
Dave: and in general, market highs in February have rarely proven to be highs for the year
Source: Bespoke as of 03.04.2025
Brad:In the heat of tariffs and DOGE pushing up recession odds, investors have lifted expectations for the number of FOMC rate cuts, seemingly pricing in 3-4, that could come this year
John Luke: as one would suspect, the Department of Government Efficiency(DOGE) was the primary driver of the cuts
Data as of 03.05.2025
Joseph: On the positive side, productivity has remained high and this doesn’t yet include the possible benefits of artificial intelligence (AI)
Data as of 03.05.2025
John Luke: and consumer savings remain high, for support if an economic slowdown kicks in
Source: TS Lombard as of February 2025
Arch: The years since the global financial crisis have been a great time to be a holder of US stocks
Source: Idea Farm via Bridgewater as of February 2025
Dave: much of it a payoff of the positive operating leverage of our largest companies
Data as of January 2025
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