Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

Brad: Earnings season is winding down, it’s been solid



Brad: and we’re approaching the expected inflection point where we see a larger show of strength across the full S&P 500



Brad: and eventually in 2025, into the small-cap universe


Source: Strategas as of 05.06.2024


Joseph: with profit margins again expanding after a hit in 2022


Source: Raymond James as of 05.09.2024


Beckham: Inflation is polling as the most impactful economic concern among consumers


Data as of April 2024


Brian: as the breadth of items experiencing price rises is settling into an area well above pre-COVID levels but well below the highs of summer 2022



John Luke: Services as a whole have been the most consistent, sticky driver of inflation in recent years


Data as of March 2024


Brett: putting the Fed in a bit of a pickle heading into the 2024 election


Source: Bloomberg as of 05.08.2024


John Luke: The performance spread between corporate bonds and government bonds is as wide as it’s been


Data as of January 2024


Dave: with credit spreads continuing to plunge lower


Source: Sandbox Daily as of 05.08.2024


John Luke: against a wide range of refinancing plans for US corporations depending on size and sector


Source: Piper Sandler as of 05.06.2024


John Luke: Interest expense for the US government is rising quickly from multi-decade lows


Source: Bianco as of 03.31.2024


Beckham: as the Treasury becomes a larger backstop to the economy


Data as of March 2024


John Luke: and the mix of Treasury buyers is evolving towards individual households and the funds they own


Data as of March 2024


Joseph: at a time when bonds are delivering less diversification to portfolios holding equities



Joseph: Stocks for the long run is a real thing, when comparing to historical returns vs. bonds and cash


Data as of January 2024


Joseph: and the same has been true in the UK despite the reduction in its importance relative to the global economy


Data as of January 2024


Brett: that said, the difference in central bank stimulus in the US vs. Europe has contributed to quite the difference in stock market outcomes


Data as of March 2024


Dave: Cheap + quality can be elusive but has been a winning combo historically


Source: Verdad as of 05.06.2024


Dave: and you can see the inefficient distribution of flows into companies falling in the “expensive and low profitability” group





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