Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
Brett: DJIA hitting 40,000 will draw attention, but the dollar-weighting gives it some notable quirks relative to the S&P 500
Data as of 05.10.2024
Beckham: with some heavy contributions from a handful of notable names
Data as of 05.10.2024
Brett: and some notable arbitrary judgments by the DJIA committee
Data as of 05.10.2024
Brad: It was a strong quarter for earnings
Brian: with the first instance of rising estimates in the 1st month of a quarter since 2021
Data as of 05.10.2024
Dave: and we’ll need more of that to deliver the significant lift in earnings currently factored into consensus estimates
Source: Raymond James as of 05.10.2024
Joseph: Services have completely taken over from goods as the driver of inflation
Data as of 05.15.2024
John Luke: and specifically, the “Supercore” measure remains higher than the Fed’s comfort level
Data as of 05.15.2024
John Luke: with the stickiest components well off of the highs but stabilizing at a “too high” level as well
Data as of 05.10.2024
John Luke: Rate cut expectations have been pushed out all year, but finally relented a bit with some of the recent FOMC comments
Data as of 05.15.2024
Brian: with the initial 4-6 cuts now down to only a September rate cut factored in before the November 5 election
Source: CME as of 05.17.2024
JD: To this point, the move from the Fall 2022 lows has been a middle-of-the-road rally for the S&P 500
Data as of 05.12.2024
Dave: with small-cap stocks lagging significantly from the lows
Brad: creating one of the longer periods without highs for the widely-watched Russell 2000
Source: Strategas
John Luke: Pundits have thrown stagflation into the scenario discussion, but Fed Chair Powell said recently he doesn’t see the “stag” or the “flation” and history shows it’s pretty rare
Data as of April 2024
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