Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

Brett: DJIA hitting 40,000 will draw attention, but the dollar-weighting gives it some notable quirks relative to the S&P 500


Data as of 05.10.2024


 Beckham: with some heavy contributions from a handful of notable names


Data as of 05.10.2024


Brett: and some notable arbitrary judgments by the DJIA committee


Data as of 05.10.2024


Brad: It was a strong quarter for earnings



Brian: with the first instance of rising estimates in the 1st month of a quarter since 2021


Data as of 05.10.2024


Dave: and we’ll need more of that to deliver the significant lift in earnings currently factored into consensus estimates


Source: Raymond James as of 05.10.2024


Joseph: Services have completely taken over from goods as the driver of inflation


Data as of 05.15.2024


John Luke: and specifically, the “Supercore” measure remains higher than the Fed’s comfort level


Data as of 05.15.2024


John Luke: with the stickiest components well off of the highs but stabilizing at a “too high” level as well


Data as of 05.10.2024


John Luke: Rate cut expectations have been pushed out all year, but finally relented a bit with some of the recent FOMC comments


Data as of 05.15.2024


Brian: with the initial 4-6 cuts now down to only a September rate cut factored in before the November 5 election


Source: CME as of 05.17.2024


JD: To this point, the move from the Fall 2022 lows has been a middle-of-the-road rally for the S&P 500


Data as of 05.12.2024


Dave: with small-cap stocks lagging significantly from the lows



Brad: creating one of the longer periods without highs for the widely-watched Russell 2000


Source: Strategas


John Luke: Pundits have thrown stagflation into the scenario discussion, but Fed Chair Powell said recently he doesn’t see the “stag” or the “flation” and history shows it’s pretty rare


Data as of April 2024




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