Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

Beckham: It’s been a year since “NVDA Day” when stocks broke out of their SIVB-driven funk and turned their eyes toward artificial intelligence

Data as of 05.21.2024


Dave: and the shift has led to big changes from that first mass recognition


Source: Strategas as of 05.20.24


Brett: In general, Q1 earnings were solid for large US companies


Data as of 05.20.2024


Joseph: with a continued dominance by the large megacap tech companies


Source: Piper Sandler as of 05.20.2024


Brad: and no sign yet of a shift to the broader market


Data as of 05.17.2024


Joseph: Even with mini-spikes like Thursday, VIX readings have fallen into a historically low range that has generally led to a narrow range of slightly positive outcomes


Source: Strategas as of 05.21.2024


John Luke: partly a result of investors converging towards a common expectation of the outlook for earnings and inflation


Data as of 05.21.2024


Brett: and stocks have generally moved along with the typical pre-election pattern



JD: Whether an investor got to this point via tortoise or hare, the 5-year endpoint has been about the same


Source: Paulsen Perspectives as of 05.22.2024


Arch: with investors moving from mutual funds to ETFs, and from active to passive


Source: Sandbox Daily as of 05.20.2024


Arch: and active managers betting that markets will broaden out beyond the Mag 7


Sandbox Daily as of 05.20.2024


Brad: It doesn’t feel like it, but active funds are generally not the ones benefitting from the big tech run


Data as of 05.17.2024


Joseph: but there has been a general trend to stay fully invested instead of holding cash


Data as of 05.17.2024


John Luke: This inflation cycle is running hotter than the ones in the recent past



Dave: and higher inflation has historically been accompanied by higher GDP, even when measured in real terms


Source: Paulsen Perspectives as of 05.20.2024


Joseph: and has had little effect on consumers, especially at the higher end of the income scale


Source: A Wealth of Common Sense as of March 2024


Brad: By most historical measures, the S&P 500 as a whole is very expensive



Joseph: but when you consider the more efficient business models its increasingly “asset-lite” makeup, it makes sense that more profitable businesses will trade above historical norms


Data as of 05.22.2024


Brett: and long-term, it has paid to participate in ownership not just work for wages!


Data as of April 2024





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