Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

John Luke: Market hopes for imminent rate cuts continue to be dashed



Brad: but historically a Fed “pause” has been just fine for stocks


Source: Strategas as of 05.01.2024


Brett: and rate policy around the world is a mixed bag


Data as of 05.01.2024


John Luke: The dilemma the Fed faces is that the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is re-accelerating after a flat period


Source: WSJ as of 04.26.2024


Beckham: with labor costs standing out as persistently strong


Data as of April 2024


John Luke: and services costs staying high in general


Data as of April 2024


Brett: so what happens if the cost of goods resumes its earlier rise?


Source: Apollo as of 04.29.2024


Dave: If the Fed is hoping for inflation relief from weaker consumer spending, it has no evidence so far



Joseph: but its secret weapon in getting out of this inflation cycle could be rising productivity


Source: PGM as of 04.29.2024


Dave: Earnings projections for 2024 are very back-end loaded


Source: Strategas as of 04.22.2024


Brad: and until we get thru Q2, very “Mag 7” loaded


Data as of 05.01.2024 


Brian: Speaking of the Mag 7 and beyond, this is as concentrated as we’ve seen it at the top


Data as of April 2024


Dave: but other global markets show even more concentration


Source: Strategas as of 04.22.2024


Dave: Your regular reminder that there can be no gain without some (temporary) pain



Brad: and while it might feel that way to those watching, the S&P 500 is not the economy


Source: Apollo as of 04.30.2024




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