Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
John Luke: Market hopes for imminent rate cuts continue to be dashed
Brad: but historically a Fed “pause” has been just fine for stocks
Source: Strategas as of 05.01.2024
Brett: and rate policy around the world is a mixed bag
Data as of 05.01.2024
John Luke: The dilemma the Fed faces is that the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is re-accelerating after a flat period
Source: WSJ as of 04.26.2024
Beckham: with labor costs standing out as persistently strong
Data as of April 2024
John Luke: and services costs staying high in general
Data as of April 2024
Brett: so what happens if the cost of goods resumes its earlier rise?
Source: Apollo as of 04.29.2024
Dave: If the Fed is hoping for inflation relief from weaker consumer spending, it has no evidence so far
Joseph: but its secret weapon in getting out of this inflation cycle could be rising productivity
Source: PGM as of 04.29.2024
Dave: Earnings projections for 2024 are very back-end loaded
Source: Strategas as of 04.22.2024
Brad: and until we get thru Q2, very “Mag 7” loaded
Data as of 05.01.2024
Brian: Speaking of the Mag 7 and beyond, this is as concentrated as we’ve seen it at the top
Data as of April 2024
Dave: but other global markets show even more concentration
Source: Strategas as of 04.22.2024
Dave: Your regular reminder that there can be no gain without some (temporary) pain
Brad: and while it might feel that way to those watching, the S&P 500 is not the economy
Source: Apollo as of 04.30.2024
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