Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:


John Luke: Demand for labor continues to surpass economist expectations


Data as of 05.05.2023


John Luke: with a streak of “beats” not seen in recent decades


Data as of 05.05.2023


John Luke: This despite a significant contraction in money supply


Source: Deutsche Bank as of 04.30.2023


John Luke: and a commitment to quantitative tightening (QT) by our Federal Reserve


Data as of 05.03.2023


Dave: Where we’re NOT seeing contraction is in Q1 earnings results


Data as of 05.01.2023


Dave: quite different from 2022 when earnings estimates were cut repeatedly


Data as of  05.01.2023


Dave: but not strong enough to be described as “growing”


Source: 22V Research as of 05.01.2023


Dave: We’ve seen significant performance differences based on company size, with megacaps dominating and microcaps floundering


Source: PSC as of 04.30.2023


John Luke: perhaps partly driven by differences in operating margins


Source: PGM Global as of 04.30.2023


Dave: and many smaller cap companies lacking earnings entirely


Source: Strategas as of 04.30.2023


John Luke: These contrasting pieces of evidence continue to confuse investors, who still aren’t buying the Fed’s story about future rates


Source: Bianco as of 05.03.2023


John Luke: as seen by the 1/3 of polled investors who expect a cut at the July FOMC meeting


Source: FedWatch Tool as of 05.05.2023






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