Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

 

John Luke: Demand for labor continues to surpass economist expectations

 

Data as of 05.05.2023

 

John Luke: with a streak of “beats” not seen in recent decades

 

Data as of 05.05.2023

 

John Luke: This despite a significant contraction in money supply

 

Source: Deutsche Bank as of 04.30.2023

 

John Luke: and a commitment to quantitative tightening (QT) by our Federal Reserve

 

Data as of 05.03.2023

 

Dave: Where we’re NOT seeing contraction is in Q1 earnings results

 

Data as of 05.01.2023

 

Dave: quite different from 2022 when earnings estimates were cut repeatedly

 

Data as of  05.01.2023

 

Dave: but not strong enough to be described as “growing”

 

Source: 22V Research as of 05.01.2023

 

Dave: We’ve seen significant performance differences based on company size, with megacaps dominating and microcaps floundering

 

Source: PSC as of 04.30.2023

 

John Luke: perhaps partly driven by differences in operating margins

 

Source: PGM Global as of 04.30.2023

 

Dave: and many smaller cap companies lacking earnings entirely

 

Source: Strategas as of 04.30.2023

 

John Luke: These contrasting pieces of evidence continue to confuse investors, who still aren’t buying the Fed’s story about future rates

 

Source: Bianco as of 05.03.2023

 

John Luke: as seen by the 1/3 of polled investors who expect a cut at the July FOMC meeting

 

Source: FedWatch Tool as of 05.05.2023

 

 

 

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