The Market in Pictures, May 5

by | May 5, 2023 | Blog, Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

 

John Luke: Demand for labor continues to surpass economist expectations

 

Data as of 05.05.2023

 

John Luke: with a streak of “beats” not seen in recent decades

 

Data as of 05.05.2023

 

John Luke: This despite a significant contraction in money supply

 

Source: Deutsche Bank as of 04.30.2023

 

John Luke: and a commitment to quantitative tightening (QT) by our Federal Reserve

 

Data as of 05.03.2023

 

Dave: Where we’re NOT seeing contraction is in Q1 earnings results

 

Data as of 05.01.2023

 

Dave: quite different from 2022 when earnings estimates were cut repeatedly

 

Data as of  05.01.2023

 

Dave: but not strong enough to be described as “growing”

 

Source: 22V Research as of 05.01.2023

 

Dave: We’ve seen significant performance differences based on company size, with megacaps dominating and microcaps floundering

 

Source: PSC as of 04.30.2023

 

John Luke: perhaps partly driven by differences in operating margins

 

Source: PGM Global as of 04.30.2023

 

Dave: and many smaller cap companies lacking earnings entirely

 

Source: Strategas as of 04.30.2023

 

John Luke: These contrasting pieces of evidence continue to confuse investors, who still aren’t buying the Fed’s story about future rates

 

Source: Bianco as of 05.03.2023

 

John Luke: as seen by the 1/3 of polled investors who expect a cut at the July FOMC meeting

 

Source: FedWatch Tool as of 05.05.2023

 

 

 

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Advisory services offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198.

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