The Market in Pictures, November 11

by | Nov 11, 2022 | Blog, Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

 

JL: stock prices have generally tracked earnings revisions this year, with a clear bias towards compressing valuations

 

Source: Strategas as of 11.07.2022

 

Brad: and the energy sector continues to be immune from 2023 estimate cuts

 

 

Joseph: while the companies themselves have been confirming that trend, with much lighter hedges than in recent years

 

 

Dave: while also keeping employee count much more restrained vs. other sectors

 

Source: Strategas as of 11.07

 

JD: speaking of restrained, the cost of hedging against sharp equity selloffs has gone nowhere this year

 

 

JL: though the good side of lower valuations is higher potential returns in the future

 

 

Dave: everyone is watching employment, but in recent cycles job losses haven’t come until well after the Fed stops hiking

 

Source: Strategas as of 09.30.2022

 

Dave: the NY Fed’s “recession model” is showing increased risk of a recession

 

Source: Morgan Stanley as of 11.07.2022

 

JL: yet nominal GDP is cruising along

 

Data as of 10.15.2022

JL: Thursday’s CPI report sent shockwaves through the rates market

 

Data as of 11.10.2022

 

Brad: with future Fed Funds expectations reacting immediately across the board

 

Source: Strategas as of 11.10.2022

 

 

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