The Market in Pictures, November 11

by | Nov 11, 2022 | Blog, Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:


JL: stock prices have generally tracked earnings revisions this year, with a clear bias towards compressing valuations


Source: Strategas as of 11.07.2022


Brad: and the energy sector continues to be immune from 2023 estimate cuts



Joseph: while the companies themselves have been confirming that trend, with much lighter hedges than in recent years



Dave: while also keeping employee count much more restrained vs. other sectors


Source: Strategas as of 11.07


JD: speaking of restrained, the cost of hedging against sharp equity selloffs has gone nowhere this year



JL: though the good side of lower valuations is higher potential returns in the future



Dave: everyone is watching employment, but in recent cycles job losses haven’t come until well after the Fed stops hiking


Source: Strategas as of 09.30.2022


Dave: the NY Fed’s “recession model” is showing increased risk of a recession


Source: Morgan Stanley as of 11.07.2022


JL: yet nominal GDP is cruising along


Data as of 10.15.2022

JL: Thursday’s CPI report sent shockwaves through the rates market


Data as of 11.10.2022


Brad: with future Fed Funds expectations reacting immediately across the board


Source: Strategas as of 11.10.2022





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