Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from earnings vs. the economy, inflation expectations, economic contributors and detractors, and the challenges of owning quality stocks in 2025. Have a great weekend!
Brad: Corporate earnings and business surveys have split apart after years of running in tandem
Jake: but it’s hard to deny the hard data of a higher trend in earnings
Data as of 11.10.2025
Brian: Another area where surveys are showing divergent results is inflation, with the University of Michigan survey methods more prone to headlines
Data as of 11.10.2025
Ten: and it’s clear that corporations are less focused on inflation than they were in recent years
Data as of 11.10.2025
Beckham: From a broader standpoint, the number of individual components rising at a 3% annualized pace has been increasing since bottoming in early 2024
Source: Apollo as of 11.13.2025
John Luke: and the real focus should be the cumulative impact of a persistent rise in prices
Source: Bridgewater Associates as of September 2025
Joseph: A large contributor to weak consumer sentiment is likely the steady decline in job opportunities since peaking in 2022
Data as of 11.11.2025
Dave: and the job openings that exist have been mostly at large companies
Data as of 11.09.2025
Dave: Economic bulls can point to coming tax refunds as a source of stimulus
Source: Strategas as of 11.10.2025
Brett: and maybe the persistent strength in economically sensitive copper prices lends some support to the growth thesis
Data as of 11.12.2025
JD: On the topic of sentiment, even the smallest pullbacks trigger worry among individual investors
Source: AAII as of 11.12.2025
John: and that wall of worry has historically been a positive tailwind for stocks
Data as of 11.10.2025
Dave: The fitful rally in speculative stocks has continued longer than normal
Data as of 11.12.2025
Brad: wiping out years of an earned premium for higher-quality stocks
Data as of 11.12.2025
John Luke: The legal status of existing tariffs is being challenged, but the administration has a number of ways to adapt if needed
Beckham: and the overall economic impact seems to be minimal to this point
Data as of 11.12.2025
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