Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
Brad: Stocks had a nice run of daily inflows coming into and out of the election
Source: Goldman Sachs as of 11.13.2024
Brian: though after the past few days, Bitcoin is the standout post-election performer
Beckham: The U.S. economy has been on a good run of exceeding expectations throughout the fall
Data as of 11.08.2024
Brett: though it’s par for the course for the FOMC to underestimate the economic strength
Data as of 11.08.2024
John Luke: and the market is again separating from the Fed’s published expectations
Data as of 11.08.2024
Arch: This continues a pattern of misalignment between market expectations and those of the Fed
Source: Apollo as of 11.09.2024
John Luke: and through all of the uncertainty, the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has actually been pretty steady
Data as of 11.13.2024
Brad: with the economic history books showing past patterns of inflation stabilizing at higher levels and then surging to even higher highs
Source: Strategas as of 11.13.2024
Joseph: The current move higher in bond yields looks tied to buyers demanding higher real rates for their dollars
Data as of 11.08.2024
John Luke: and the economic strength implied by that type of move ties in with the seasonal tendency towards more value-oriented sectors
Data as of 11.09.2024
Dave: Earnings growth hasn’t been huge but for U.S. large caps it’s generally been higher than expectations
Dave: though the larger driver of the move higher in stocks has been higher valuations, presumably driven by optimism about future earnings
JD: Are stocks really that much more valuable, or is currency debasement simply being reflected in higher prices for risk assets?
Data as of 11.13.2024
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