The Market in Pictures, November 17

by | Nov 17, 2023 | Blog, Charts

Dave: Tuesday’s reaction to the tame CPI report was the ripper of the year

 

Source: Strategas as of 11.14.2023

 

John Luke: as markets have more confidence that the Fed will move rates lower in the first half of 2024

 

Source: CME Fed Watch Tool as of 11.14.2023

 

John Luke: BUT, we’ve seen this movie before in the past 18 months

 

Data as of 11.15.2023

 

Brett: and markets are still reluctant to price in imminent rate cuts

 

Data as of 11.15.2023

 

John Luke: Services is the component keeping inflation above the Fed’s comfort level

 

Data as of October 2023

 

John Luke: and specifically shelter as the one area comprising the bulk of the services impact

 

Data as of October 2023

 

Joseph: and you can really see the significant build-up in housing costs over the past few years

 

Source: Bianco as of October 2023

 

Brad: Reminder that stock-bond correlations are not a number you can just plug into planning software, they float in a wide range depending on inflation

 

Source: Strategas as of October 2023

 

John Luke: and right now, we’re in the inflation range where correlation is clearly positive

 

Data as of October 2023

 

John Luke: Even with recent contractions, central banks around the world are still sitting on large balance sheet debts

 

Data as of 11.15.2023

  

John Luke: and the US government fiscal picture is not exactly helping the Treasury’s ability to reduce borrowing needs

 

Source: Stifel as of October 2023

 

John Luke: despite that picture on the government side, investors aren’t overly concerned about the repayment ability of US corporations

 

 Source: Bloomberg as of 11.13.2023

 

Beckham: On the earnings front, consensus estimates are factoring in a serious boost from profit margins

 

Data as of 11.13.2023

 

Dave: but we’re seeing incremental cuts in forward earnings estimates as we go through the Q3 earnings season

 

 

John Luke: It seems like megacap tech has been the consensus trade forever, but it’s actually been hot and cold based on recent performance

 

Data as of 11.13.2023

 

John Luke: and the sentiment towards the future course of bonds has completely flipped this year as investors think we’ve seen the highs of this cycle

 

Source: Market Ear as of 11.13.2023

 

Dave: Looking ahead to an election year, as we’ve historically seen decent performance with the current electoral makeup

 

Data as of October 2023

 

Dave: and the weak election years have historically come when there is no incumbent in office to promote a re-election agenda

 

 Source: Strategas as of 11.13.2023

 

 

 

Disclosures

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.

 

Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.

 

This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment & tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.

 

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Advisory services offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198.

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