Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:


Dave: Advisors know this has been a challenging year for the typical stock relative to the S&P 500


Data as of 11.18.2023


John Luke: but history shows the equal-weighted S&P has performed just fine head-to-head




Beckham: and historically these larger divergences have been reversed in future years



Brad: As they usually do, earnings managed to beat expectations, with a whole lot of variance by sector


Source: Strategas as of 11.21.2023


Joseph: and speaking of sectors, managements in this year’s laggards have been the most aggressive in announcing stock buybacks, led by materials


Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Data as of November 2023


Joseph: Surveys show inflation expectations rising despite the sharp reduction in government inflation figures


Source: University of Michigan as of 11.21.2023


John Luke: as the cumulative reality of recent inflation sets in


Source: The Bureau of Labor Statistics, data as of October 2023


Brett: and investors flocking into money markets again put themselves at the risk of losing purchasing power


Source: Hartford Funds as of March 2023


Beckham: No way around it, the U.S. consumer is in a pretty healthy state especially at the high end


Source: Goldman Sachs as of November 2023


John Luke: which, combined with the recent equity bounce is offsetting much of the Fed’s rate hikes and quantitative tightening


Data as of 11.17.2023


Joseph: While central banks across the world have generally ended their rate hikes



John Luke: and US investors are seemingly locked in on the always-elusive “soft landing”




Brett: investors in this rate cycle have generally looked out at least two quarters before anticipating actual rate cuts




Dave: Even at that, stock market performance from the last hike to the first cut has historically been driven by the prevailing inflation regime


Source: Strategas as of 11.20.2023


Dave: with even the first rate cut showing itself to be no easy path to market gains


Source: Strategas as of 11.20.2023


Dave: so in the end, history says we’re better off with more “holding” than we are with cutting


 Source: Strategas as of 11.20.2023






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