Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
Dave: As is usually the case, this equity rally has attracted inflows
Source: Strategas as of 11.18.2022
Joseph: and is settling into levels that have accompanied the other bear market peaks in 2022
Data as of 11.22.2022
JL: and bringing equity valuations into the upper range of historical markers
Data as of 11.22.2022
Joseph: For the first time in forever, Treasuries are offering a serious alternative to equity dividend yields
Data as of 11.18.2022
JL: high yield spreads have done very little to compensate investors for the additional credit risk
Source: Raymond James as of 10.31.22
Joseph: Traditional recession indicators are mixed on where the US economy may go
Data as of 11.17.2022
JL: though a recession in actual corporate earnings is the data point that ultimately matters more to equity markets
Source: Morgan Stanley as of 11.18.2022
JL: Declining dominance by megacap tech has actually been warranted by fundamentals, but may not be such a bad thing long-term
Data as of 11.20.2022
Dave: as other parts of the economy pick up the slack and position for future growth. Quite a dispersion by sector in relative performance vs. the S&P 500
Source: Raymond James as of 11.21.2022
Dave: Fed pauses have historically been decent times to be invested in stocks
Data as of 11.18.2022
Dave: and while money supply growth has been abnormally stagnant in 2022, the really abnormal number in this series is 2020
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