Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from volatility waking up to single stock movements to earnings power and the new and evolving job market. Have a great weekend!
Brett: Sometimes markets just need an excuse to clear out some excesses
Data as of 10.10.2025
John Luke: and this period without pullbacks has emboldened traders to hop on stocks with questionable fundamentals
Source: FT as of 10.13.2025
Mark: with single stocks attracting historically high levels of trade interest relative to the indexes
Source: Cboe as of 10.13.2025
Ten: This three year run has lacked the broader market participation generally seen in bull markets
Data as of 10.12.2025
Beckham: though much of that is sector dispersion, as strength in leading sectors has been much broader than in lagging sectors
Data as of 10.14.2025
Dave: The media spends a lot of time on the stories of the day, but ultimately earnings have continued to be the primary driver of market outcomes
Dave: and for all of the concern over concentration, the profitability of the popular Mag 7 names has matched their superior market performance
Brad: S&P 500 companies have a history of consistently outperforming earnings expectations
Data as of 10.10.2025
Brad: with 4-8% above consensus being a common outcome in the past few years
Data as of 10.10.2025
Brian: Probably due to artificial intelligence, and maybe a bit from economic uncertainty, employee turnover has shrunk quite a bit from recent years
Source: Apollo as of 10.10.2025
Brad: also reflected in payroll growth falling in search of a “new normal” level of job creation
Source: Strategas as of 10.03.2025
Jake: The always-changing nature of the economy is one reason that markets have a hard time forecasting future recessions
Source: Goldman as of 10.03.2025
Dave: and recent recession calls have been futile, as companies around the world undertake new spending projects even outside of AI
Jake: Foreigners love US stocks, and have for some time
Source: Goldman as of 10.10.2025
JD: and their central banks are continuing to stockpile non-fiat currencies such as gold
Data as of 10.06.2025
John Luke: Recent “quantitative tightening” in US has been in short-term instruments, as the Fed continues to buy long bonds to keep those yields from rising
Source: @Econimica as of 10.14.2025
Brad: If AI is a bubble, it’s a whole lot tamer than notable bubbles of the past
Source: Strategas as of 10.13.2025
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