Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and how they help fill the puzzle of evidence:

 

John Luke: Fastest monetary tightening in decades

 

Source: Bianco as of 10.25.2022

 

John Luke: and the terminal rate keeps lifting

 

Source: Bianco as of 10.21.2022

 

 

Dave: Consumer spending has recovered, though with nominal spending now way ahead of trend

 

 

Source: PSC as of 10.27.2022

 

Beckham: but builders are immediately responding to the higher rates

 

 

Source: BlackRock as of 10.25.2022

 

Mark: Reactions to earnings have been all over the board

 

 

Data as of 10.27.2022

 

 

Brad: with energy and tech at opposite ends of the spectrum

 

 

Source: Bloomberg data from Strategas as of 10.28.22

 

Dave: Markets have often fared poorly into midterms and better coming out

 

 

Source: Piper Sandler

 

 

Dave: and actual economic downturns in Year 3 of a Presidential cycle have totaled exactly zero in the past 60 years

 

 

Source: Piper Sandler as of 10.19.2022

 

 

John Luke: Just a wild chart, a different “Zero” as it relates to China…zero return in 30 years

 

 

 

 

 

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