Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. Here are a handful that we think are good summations of investor activity, from buzzy stocks to profit margins, to data centers and a solid economy, to weak housing and limited equity supply. Have a great weekend!
Beckham: Government shutdowns tend to sound scarier than they look in the market data. Past episodes have created noise, not lasting damage.
Source: Bloomberg as of 09.30.2025
Dave: Recession calls keep getting pushed out. From nine states in contraction territory this summer to only six now, the economy has shown more resilience than many expected.
Data as of 09.25.2025
Brian: Growth expectations are also moving higher. Recent Atlanta Fed projections for Q3 GDP growth continue to ramp, with strong consumption and a drop in imports lifting estimates to nearly 4%.
Source: Atlanta Fed as of 09.26.2025
Brad: While spending among high-wealth households often draws attention, households in the bottom 50% of net worth have boosted equity exposure by more than 500% since 2020. That incremental wealth may provide additional support.
Source: Citadel Securities as of 09.29.2025
Mark: Policy easing is already underway and should act as insurance against a soft patch turning into something worse. Labor markets have slowed but not declined. If the economy holds up, the market will begin to look ahead to tailwinds from fiscal support and lower rates.
Data as of 09.26.2025
Joseph: Employment data shows something we have literally never seen before: core payrolls flatlining around 0 percent growth for months. In the past, when this level dipped below zero, it generally preceded material job losses, but we are not there yet.
Source: BLS as of 09.30.2025
John Luke: The scale of Magnificent 7 revenue and investment into AI continues to astound. Projections for AI spending are expected to rival nearly half the size of the entire China supercycle and already exceed the scale of World War II mobilization, even after adjusting for inflation.
Source: City National Rochdale
Brett: Those strong fundamentals have fed into the US equity market now making up 2/3 of the global stock market.
Source: FFTT Tree Rings as of 09.26.2025
Derek: Valuations make buying US stocks feel uncomfortable, but the index is not what it once was. More predictable cash flows, stronger balance sheets, and higher quality composition may argue for a new normal.
Source: BofA ML as of 09.30.2025
Ten: We are currently sitting in an environment of stocks at all-time highs and the Fed cutting rates, which has historically been bullish. In 21 out of 21 similar cases without a recession, the S&P 500 delivered positive 12-month returns, averaging nearly 18%.
Source: LPL Financial as of 09.23.2025
Joseph: Credit spreads tell the story of current risk appetite among fixed income investors. Investment Grade spreads are the tightest since the late 1990s and High Yield spreads are near the tightest since 2007. Both are about half their historical averages.
Source: Creative Planning as of 09.23.2025
JD: With looser monetary policy and tighter credit spreads, fixed income may no longer offer the same appeal. Recent news that gold may soon pass Treasuries as the reserve asset of choice among central banks is a reminder that diversification is happening even at the sovereign level.
Source: Financial Times as of 09.15.2025
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Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.
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