Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
John Luke: Chatter around a 50 bps cut jumped a bit late in the week, we’ll see what’s in store next Wednesday
Source: Bloomberg
Beckham: what that means for future market returns will depend on the type of economic “landing”
Joseph: Year-over-year CPI inputs for food and energy are now pretty much flat
Data as of 09.12.2024
John Luke: but services inflation remains sticky, even without the impact from shelter
Data as of 09.12.2024
Arch: Historically, rates on 2-year Treasuries being this far below the Fed Funds rate has been a precursor to recession
Source: Bloomberg as of 09.12.2024
Brett: but a broad collection of data points show little danger of an imminent recession
Data as of 09.07.2024
John Luke: and overall tax receipts have been stable and strong
Source: Pivotous as of 09.09.2024
John Luke: A possible new economic tailwind is the tapping of home equity now that rates are falling
Source: Bloomberg as of 09.09.2024
Beckham: without the concerns that created danger in housing ahead of the global financial crisis
Source: Bloomberg as of 09.09.2024
Dave: We’re entering the window when the broader market is expected to produce earnings growth closer to what we’re seeing in the to-date dominant Mag 7 results
Dave: but the small cap earnings takeover remains elusive
Source: Goldman Sachs as of 09.11
Dave: Some sectors have tighter earnings correlations than others, but there is still a fair bit of dispersion within sectors in the ability of companies to deliver growth
Source: Jefferies as of 09.10.2024
Dave: but at the overall market level, the consensus expectation is that the miracle of increasing margins continues
Source: Strategas as of 09.10.2024
Dave: Bonds might be viewed by many as “safe money”, but they sure are capable of producing large drawdowns, bigger than stocks in many years
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