Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:
Dave: September is famous for being the weakest month for stocks, with the 2nd half being the most challenging
Daily Returns for S&P 500
Source: Goldman Sachs as of Sept 2023
Beckham: and the inability of companies to buy their own shares in the weeks ahead doesn’t help
Source: Market Ear as of 09.12.2023
John Luke: Another challenge for stocks in the short-term is the valuation and sentiment backdrop
Source: PGM as of 09.12.2023
Dave: and at the moment, cash feels appealing to many against an uncertain backdrop
Source: Strategas as of 09.13.2023
Dave: Speaking of cash, money market funds are grabbing most of the inflows
Source: Strategas as of 09.12.2023
Brad: quite a change from most of the period since the financial crisis
Dave: The largest US tech companies continue to dominate the market cap weighted S&P 500
Source: Strategas as of 09.11.2023
Joseph: expanding again in 2023 through eye-popping returns relative to the rest of the index
Data as of 09.13.2023
Dave: but there’s hope for smaller companies to recapture some mojo if economic growth resumes
Source: Strategas as of 09.12.2023
Beckham: and some dispersion has often been helpful in keeping a wall of worry intact
Source: DataTrek as of Sept 2023
John Luke: The latest CPI report shows a troubling persistence in the rate of “super-core” inflation
Data as of 09.13.2023
John Luke: and the tightness in energy supplies isn’t going to help the Fed instill confidence that inflation has been broken
Data as of 09.12.2023
Dave: Correlation is a key input to diversification, and the challenge is that it moves around based on the state of inflation
Source: Strategas as of 09.12.2023
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