The Market in Pictures, September 2

by | Sep 2, 2022 | Blog, Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and how they help fill the puzzle of evidence:

 

Dave: The first half of 2022 mostly driven by Fed hikes, but 2nd half looks like an earnings story…

 

Data as of 08.30.22

 

Joseph: Small-caps are already pricing a recession but large caps are richly priced even w/o estimate cuts

 

Data as of 08.30.2022

 

JL: Volatility as measured by VIX has been awfully tame in 2022

 

Data as of 08.30.22

 

Dave: …as we head into the historically weakest month of the year

 

Data as of 08.31.2022

 

Beckham: The floating rate market could become a key area of trouble

 

Source: Bianco as of 08.31.2022

 

JL: In a year that’s already by far the worst for bondholders since the inception of the Bond Aggregate Index

 

 

Dave: Retail gas prices continue to fall, and the fall in wholesale prices leaves the potential for continued declines

 

Source: Strategas as of 09.01.2022

 

Joseph: While crack spreads have round-tripped the entire spike in profit margins

 

Data as of 09.01.22

 

JL: Monetary policy alone cannot tame inflation when fiscal spending remains overly accommodative

 

Source: Kansas City Fed as of 08.19.2022

 

 

 

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This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment & tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.  

The S&P 500® Index is the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index and is widely regarded as a single gauge of large cap U.S. equities. It is market cap weighted and includes 500 leading companies, capturing approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

Created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), the Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index that represents the market’s expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility. Derived from the price inputs of the S&P 500 index options, it provides a measure of market risk and investors’ sentiments.

The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency).

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