It’s the Tails That Worry Us

It’s the Tails That Worry Us

This month’s note is a carryover from last month’s, where we highlighted the rise of the “set it and forget it” portfolio over the last couple of decades, and the potential issues we see with that mentality. These portfolios are dependent on bonds working. By...
It’s the Tails That Worry Us

Rethinking Allocation

Think Different – Be Different   Day in and day out, our time is spent in the trenches with financial advisors and their end clients. Some are new relationships; some we’ve had the privilege to work with for years. We aim to be a valuable relationship and extend...
It’s the Tails That Worry Us

Yield Matters

Markets Have Changed   Discounting is the mathematical practice of estimating what a cash flow in the future is worth TODAY. Higher rates used in discounting lead to lower values today, while lower rates used in discounting lead to higher values today.  Given...
It’s the Tails That Worry Us

Everything is Fine?

A quick reminder, the formula for generating investment returns looks like this:   Return = Yield + Growth +/- Valuation Change   Here’s the graphic showing each of the 3 potential drivers of return, broken out with annualized return of each component, by...
It’s the Tails That Worry Us

Is It Worth Locking in 4%?

4% yields look attractive. Are they?   Rate Environment   We are writing this on 11/2/2022 as markets await the 1pm CST FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) statement followed by Chairman Powell’s press conference.  Another 75bps hike seems to be a given. ...