Rearview to Windshield, May 2021

Rearview to Windshield, May 2021

Developments over the Past Month:     Thus far, 2021 has continued the inflation theme in the market. Value continues to outpace growth, small caps have performed well, and bond yields reflated. 10Yr Treasury yields have marched higher (0.93% on 12/31/2020),...
Rearview to Windshield, May 2021

Q1 2021 Recap and Chart Book

Just a few things had investor attention in Q1, among them… The inauguration of President Biden A blowout earnings season The emergence of meme stocks and our introduction to an online trader nicknamed Roaring Kitty A near endless supply of new SPACs Incipient...
Rearview to Windshield, May 2021

The Relative Opportunity Set

Absolute valuations matter, if the history of markets is any guide. They can be a solid indicator for future returns.   High valuations today lead to lower returns moving forward, and vice versa.  That’s how markets work – they are mean reverting. That can be...
Rearview to Windshield, May 2021

Rearview to Windshield, April 2021

Looking Back:   One year ago, the WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic and the equity market troughed. The S&P 500 has subsequently soared by 75% during the past 12 months. 10Yr Treasury yields continue to march higher, driving daily movements in the market, and...
Rearview to Windshield, May 2021

The Impact of Rising Rates

Rates Are Moving   Interest rates – just look at what the yield (the interest rate) of 10-year government bonds has done recently.  The arrow is pointing to the start of 2021, starting below 1% and spiking over 1.5%.   Source: Bloomberg, 03.01.2021  ...
Rearview to Windshield, May 2021

February Review + March Preview

Market Action in February:   Despite plenty of fireworks in a handful of somewhat wonky assets, major asset classes were up slightly in February, with small caps leading the party. The first week of February saw the S&P 500 Index jump back to all-time highs,...