2021 Backdrop and Chart Book

2021 Backdrop and Chart Book

The Backdrop for the Beginning of 2021   The Good Better Economic Data – Economic data, which lags the stock market, hit rock-bottom as we expected during April and May, but early signs of a recovery have begun to appear. Now that we have a fifth round of...
2021 Backdrop and Chart Book

A Price to Pay

You’re driving down the highway with a speed limit of 60 MPH. You’ve set cruise control to 67, the sweet spot where you probably won’t get pulled over, and if you did, the penalty may just be a slap on the wrist.     There’s no traffic, and you’ve zoned out listening...
2021 Backdrop and Chart Book

2021 Consensus Market Themes

You Have to Know Where You’ve Been to Know Where You’re Going   The profile of the global equity market through the current recession has, so far, been more extreme than most cycles. The market fell into a recession much faster than average (the fastest since...
2021 Backdrop and Chart Book

The Math of Holding Too Many Bonds

We thought AQR did a great job describing the history of hedges and the high cost of carry. Their conclusion is that hedges have proven too costly to be worth using. But what about the cost of owning bonds? Isn’t that where we are now? Surely a retiree portfolio is...
2021 Backdrop and Chart Book

Process Over Politics

Left or right, blue or red, no matter the outcome on November 3rd, or even if there is no outcome on November 3rd, it won’t change the way we view portfolio construction. The source of returns will still be yield, growth, or valuation change.  What matters will still...