Q4 Recap and Chart Book

Q4 Recap and Chart Book

This is our biggie each quarter, pages of charts and the context to go with them. As always, we think the windshield view is far more relevant than the rearview. But it’s through the rearview that we get a sense of the path traveled to this point, helping to set...
Q4 Recap and Chart Book

Fixed Income: 2022 Review + 2023 Preview

2022: Unprecedented in Modern Market History   For only the third year since 1926, both US stocks and bonds lost money (the other two occurrences were … 1931 and 1969. The 60/40 portfolio simply didn’t work. While this might not be new news, we believe it...
Q4 Recap and Chart Book

Yield Matters

Markets Have Changed   Discounting is the mathematical practice of estimating what a cash flow in the future is worth TODAY. Higher rates used in discounting lead to lower values today, while lower rates used in discounting lead to higher values today.  Given...
Q4 Recap and Chart Book

Everything is Fine?

A quick reminder, the formula for generating investment returns looks like this:   Return = Yield + Growth +/- Valuation Change   Here’s the graphic showing each of the 3 potential drivers of return, broken out with annualized return of each component, by...
Q4 Recap and Chart Book

Is It Worth Locking in 4%?

4% yields look attractive. Are they?   Rate Environment   We are writing this on 11/2/2022 as markets await the 1pm CST FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) statement followed by Chairman Powell’s press conference.  Another 75bps hike seems to be a given. ...