It’s the Tails That Worry Us

It’s the Tails That Worry Us

This month’s note is a carryover from last month’s, where we highlighted the rise of the “set it and forget it” portfolio over the last couple of decades, and the potential issues we see with that mentality. These portfolios are dependent on bonds working. By...
It’s the Tails That Worry Us

Rethinking Allocation

Think Different – Be Different   Day in and day out, our time is spent in the trenches with financial advisors and their end clients. Some are new relationships; some we’ve had the privilege to work with for years. We aim to be a valuable relationship and extend...
It’s the Tails That Worry Us

Q4 2022: American Psycho

As one of the most searing dissections of 1980s yuppie culture, American Psycho has become a movie with a cult following, as it depicts Patrick Bateman’s journey of a part-time Wall Street brokerwith a full-time serial killer. American Psycho is complex film. By the...
It’s the Tails That Worry Us

Q4 Recap and Chart Book

This is our biggie each quarter, pages of charts and the context to go with them. As always, we think the windshield view is far more relevant than the rearview. But it’s through the rearview that we get a sense of the path traveled to this point, helping to set...
It’s the Tails That Worry Us

Fixed Income: 2022 Review + 2023 Preview

2022: Unprecedented in Modern Market History   For only the third year since 1926, both US stocks and bonds lost money (the other two occurrences were … 1931 and 1969. The 60/40 portfolio simply didn’t work. While this might not be new news, we believe it...
It’s the Tails That Worry Us

Yield Matters

Markets Have Changed   Discounting is the mathematical practice of estimating what a cash flow in the future is worth TODAY. Higher rates used in discounting lead to lower values today, while lower rates used in discounting lead to higher values today.  Given...