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The Aptus Blog

Market notes, charts, investment concepts, and timely market updates, directly from our investment team.

2025-03-20 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Perspective on the Market PullbackCongrats on making it to the best part of the year – March Madness and The Masters. As many readers know, we say that D R S K was the fund that built Aptus. Well, in fact2025-03-11 · Market UpdatesMarch 2025 in Stocks: Beyond the HeadlinesGiven the recent market volatility, we wanted to share some thoughts on the evolving landscape and provide some opinions on what it means for volatility and markets. Ther2025-03-04 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, March 2025During the month, it felt as if the animal spirits coming out of the election had finally been disrupted by what is perceived to be a certain hyperactivity in Washington 2025-03-04 · Market UpdatesWinning the Long-Term Money GameIf we gave you a million dollars to invest today, with the objective of delivering the highest compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over a typical 30 year period, where w2025-02-28 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q4 2024 Earnings ResultsHope that everyone has been enjoying some warmer weather this past week. It was a tough winter; the U.S. has been experiencing its coldest winter in ~15 years and amongst2025-02-07 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Not So Tarif-Fying?We’re one month down, with 11 months to go and let me tell you, there was a lot to digest in January. Week 1: Rates moving off of a hard landing narrative due to a strong2025-02-05 · Market UpdatesLosing Money SafelyYou can let fear keep you out of risk assets (stocks), a lot of people do, but they are going higher with or without you. The show will go on. It must. There will be ups 2025-02-05 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, February 2025Market Recap – January 2025: It was a very interesting month, as the market navigated a slew of headlines that, at first glance, seemed to be potential negative game chan2025-01-31 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: China’s DeepSeeking MissilesI’ve fielded a lot of questions about DeepSeek and its potential ramifications on the stock market – I’ll be the first to say that I am not a pro in the technical jargon 2025-01-02 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, January 2025Market Recap – December 2024: The rally in stocks in 2023 was driven, mostly, by hope of market friendly events: The end of rate hikes and start of rate cuts, the economy2024-12-23 · Market UpdatesGiving ThanksThanksgiving is my wife’s favorite holiday, and because of that, we make the long trek to Cincinnati, Ohio every November. There are a number of traditions, but they all 2024-12-20 · Market UpdatesAptus Market Outlook December 2024The team discussed the firm’s outlook for 2025, including investment committee views on the economy, markets, and investment strategy. Key points The team is optimistic a2024-12-18 · Market UpdatesMarket Outlook 2025: Airplane!Aptus Capital Market Outlook: Stocks for the Long Haul? Surely You Can’t Be Serious. I Am, and Don’t Call Me Shirley The movie Airplane! is sophomoric, obvious, predictab2024-12-02 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, December 2024Market Recap – November 2024: The market boasted its best month of the year, as market bulls believe that President-elect Donald Trump is the nominal GDP growth candidate2024-11-27 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q3 2024 Earnings RecapGiven the breadth of questions that I’ve received on President-elect Trump’s cabinet picks I thought I’d start with some commentary. In my opinion, the market is not poli2024-11-07 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: It’s OverIt’s over. But, in a way…it has only just begun. Election Superlatives: 9 out of the past 10 elections, the results have yielded a situation where power flipped parties. 2024-11-04 · Market UpdatesPortfolio Reminder: Election 2024It’s the weekend before the election and I want this month’s note to serve as a quick reminder of What Matters. The linked post is from July of this year and we wouldn’t 2024-11-01 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Election 2024Both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 marked their last major correction low roughly one year ago (10/27/2023) with each now in the top decile of their historical 12-mont2024-11-01 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, November 2024Market Recap – October 2024: Broad markets were down during October, but that should not be a surprise to investors, as it tends to be the worst month in an election year2024-10-23 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q3 2024 Earnings PreviewWe’ve continued to speak to the fact that the market is witnessing a “right tail” event, as the S&P 500 is +40%+ since the recent market bottom of 10/27/2023. Yet, ri2024-10-02 · Market UpdatesAre You Appropriately Positioned?The Fed cut 50bps in September and expects more rate cuts to come. They are not alone as central banks around the world are cutting rates. September saw the most rate cut2024-10-02 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, October 2024The Market Hit New Highs, From Different “Whys”: The character of the market changed in Q3, but the direction remained the same with strong breadth. Many have asked if th2024-09-20 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Fed Up With High Real RatesI’m hyped. Things David Wagner is hyped for: I’m hyped for the market; I’m hyped for the Aptus ETF strategies; I’m hyped for the structure of our Asset Allocation (MOAR S2024-09-11 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Politics Go the Distance in Investor MindsFirst and foremost, I hope everyone takes time to reflect on the events of 23 years ago and pray for those who lost their lives, fought for our country, risked their live2024-09-05 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: An Earnings Creed – Q2 ’24 Earnings RecapA mere 23 years ago, America witnessed a Thanksgiving halftime performance that they had no clue that they needed. It embodied flying shirtless angels holding on to white2024-09-04 · Market UpdatesHow Do You Define Safe?Brian wrote a post last week that’s relevant to this month’s writeup. It’s worth a few minutes of your time as it provides perspective around how you should think about i2024-09-03 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, September 2024August Witnessed Some Fireworks at the Onset, But It Quickly Waned: The month of August was highlighted by the unwinding of the “Japanese Carry Trade”. As of right now, t2024-08-06 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Making Sense of August 5thI’d love to cut right to the chase, but many of today’s problems can be solved by proper allocation. It’s times like these that show why Aptus is built the way we are. We2024-08-06 · Market UpdatesPortfolio Resilience During Global Market DeclineGlobal markets are experiencing notable declines, from challenges within Japan and the yen carry trade unwind. This event appears technical, but we are vigilant in assess2024-08-05 · Market UpdatesCustom vs. ProductionReal-Time Update I started this note with markets at all-time highs, or close to it. As I type, we are now in a ~8% pullback. VIX hit 65 this morning (August 5th). This t2024-08-05 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, August 2024July ‘24 Market Recap + Some August: Political fireworks and a dramatic rotation from large to small cap dominated the headlines over the past month. But, more recently t2024-07-23 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Biden Drops OutMultiple clients have asked for thoughts regarding President Joe Biden’s exit from the upcoming election, and its effect on the markets (I hear that “investor” listed at 2024-07-16 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q2 2024 Earnings PreviewBefore we get into the topic du jour, let’s hit on a few things: Joseph Sykora, CFA, Head of Private Investments at Aptus, sent out an awesome quote this morning: “Equiti2024-07-08 · Market UpdatesWhat MattersBasketball is a simple game. There’s complexity when it comes to different offensive or defensive schemes. There’s advanced analytics and Moneyball-type statistics everyw2024-07-01 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, July 2024June ‘24 Market Recap – Let the Good Times Roll: The S&P 500 had its 32nd all-time high this year during the month – ending June slightly off the potential for a 33rd2024-06-25 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Enter Stage Left, the U.S. Presidential ElectionWell, there’s no sugarcoating this one; the first U.S. Presidential Election Debate for the current race will occur later this week. This event will likely jumpstart an o2024-06-05 · Market UpdatesWinning Within the SystemI’ve been reminded of two things this month: It is a privilege to get to write about things we think matter. Thank you for the opportunity. The importance of communicatin2024-06-04 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, June 2024May ‘24 Market Recap – In Like a Lion, Out Like a Lamb: After April came in with showers, May came out like a lamb, driven by a better-than-anticipated earnings season, l2024-05-16 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q1 2024 Earnings Season RecapI hope everyone survived the great bear market of April 2024. The market clearly created a wall of worry around earnings, and it appears that it largely cleared this hurd2024-05-06 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, May 2024April ‘24 Market Recap – Staircase Up, Elevator Down: It was April showers as it was the worst month since September. April has given back much of the Q1 gains as 10-year2024-04-17 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q1 2024 Earnings PreviewA repeated question that I’ve continued to receive is: What’s Going to Kill the Market Rally? In fact, this was the exact question I was asked on Fox Business’s Varney &a2024-04-10 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Valuing International MarketsOver the past few months, many of you have heard us focus much of our market commentary around the perception of equity valuations – that U.S. stocks may not be as expens2024-04-02 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, April 2024March ‘24 Market Recap: The S&P 500 returned 10.6% in Q1, on a combination of two very powerful forces; dovish central banks and a continued broadening of the AI narr2024-04-01 · Market UpdatesWinning the RaceOur favorite fund manager David Dredge made a return visit to the Macro Hive podcast, and again it was a joy to hear him discuss better ways to pursue compounding wealth.2024-03-05 · Market UpdatesWhat Worries Your Clients?We group portfolio risk into two categories: Longevity Risk Drawdown Risk (A form of volatility risk) Risk #2 dominates the minds of most advisors and clients we speak wi2024-03-04 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, March 2024February ‘24 Market Recap: Helped by better-than-expected earnings, the S&P 500 (+5.3% total return) clocked a fresh high in Feb. But just 26% of stocks outperformed 2024-02-13 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Q4 2023 Earnings RecapS&P 500 Earnings Recap – Q4 2023 Fox Business (Varney) – Earnings Interview Heading into this year, at the market level, I continued to state that “the burden of proo2024-02-07 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Can the Market Go Higher?As many of you know, we have our ear to the ground with partners across the country – something we are proud to say. Another thing that we are very proud about is bringin2024-02-06 · Market UpdatesCasting a Wider NetVery few days pass that don’t involve a cast net being thrown at our house. I’m not sure I can think of anything I’d rather do than throw the net with my crew. My kids ha2024-02-01 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, February 2024January ‘24 Market Recap → Good Start, Bad Breadth: Despite the S&P 500 rally, the equal-weighted S&P 500 fell 0.7% as breadth narrowed to just 34% (% of stocks a2024-01-26 · Market UpdatesChinese Stocks: The Disconnect with Economic GrowthIn the world of finance, it’s often assumed that a thriving economy translates to robust stock market returns. However, when we scrutinize the Chinese stock market, a sta2024-01-23 · Market UpdatesHappy 5 Years to Our Compounders!When we made the Aptus Compounders sleeve available to advisors in 2018, we never put much thought into the actual strategy name. It just came naturally to us, and we ran2024-01-19 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Earnings AheadS&P 500 Earnings Preview – Q4 2023 It’s common knowledge that if the market endures two (2) consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, it is considered a recession 2024-01-04 · Market UpdatesA Recipe for SuccessInvestors should have one goal – to compound capital. A sufficient compounded return is at the heart of all things related to financial goals. That’s our goal in 2024. To2024-01-03 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, January 2024December ’23 Market Recap: Investors enjoyed broad-based relief in the fourth quarter. After rising sharply in Q2 and Q3, rates peaked in the fourth quarter fueled by Pow2023-12-27 · Market UpdatesMeet the Team : William GrahamYou might have seen our Team Page with our full team lineup, showing us in the office setting, with the usual bios about backgrounds and roles. We wanted to show you who 2023-12-21 · Market UpdatesMarket Outlook 2024: Will Consumers Shrug?Who Is John Galt? In 1957, Ayn Rand, an anti-statist public intellectual, wrote her magnum opus – Atlas Shrugged. The best-selling dystopian novel depicted a United State2023-12-12 · Market UpdatesAptus Musings: Can the S&P 500 Win if the Mag 7 Loses?Quick CPI Inflation Thoughts: Simply put, the last mile of bringing inflation back down to the Fed’s long-term target will be difficult – most likely due to the continued2023-12-06 · Market UpdatesTaxation By Inflation“By continuing the process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not o2023-12-05 · Market UpdatesRearview to Windshield, December 2023November ’23 Market Recap: After a 20% drawdown in many stocks between July and October, equities staged an impressive rebound in November thanks to the sharp reversal in

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