The Market in Pictures, July 12

by | Jul 12, 2024 | Blog, Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

 

John Luke: Maybe, just maybe, the near-term inflation concerns can be reduced

 

Source: Strategas as of 07.11.2024

 

John Luke: which could free the Fed to relax what has now become a slightly restrictive policy stance

 

Data as of 07.07.2024

 

John Luke: The latest inflation report triggered a historic rotation from recent growth winners to value laggards, on hopes rate cuts can come sooner vs. later

 

Source: Data as of 07.11.2024

 

Brad: an outcome long-awaited for those waiting on mean reversion

 

Data as of 07.10.2024

 

Dave: The chart below was pre-rotation day, but shows how much room remains for the small-cap reversion opportunity

 

Source: Strategas as of 07.09.2024

 

Beckham: also just before the big rotation, but clearly a historically high number of stocks that have room to play catch-up to the big kahuna S&P 500

 

Source: Apollo as of 07.11.2024

 

John Luke: But the catalysts are there for broadening participation, at least on a valuation basis

 

Source: Alpine Macro as of 07.08.2024

 

Dave: and in particular, huge performance dispersion between tech stocks and most everything else

 

Source: Bernstein as of 07.08.2024

 

Joseph: but even within technology, there are a number of companies whose stocks haven’t attracted the same enthusiasm of the most favored names

 

Data as of 07.03.2024

 

Dave: and on a fundamental basis, there is a case to be made that the broader market is about to close the earnings gap on the recently dominant Mag 5 or whatever you want to call them

 

Source: Goldman Sachs as of 07.03.2024

 

Dave: In general, the progression of earnings estimates is holding up nicely

 

Source: Goldman Sachs as of 06.24.2024

 

Brett: a good sign, coming out of an earnings trough

   

 

Arch: and good first halves for stocks have generally led to average or better second halves

  

 

Brad: An interesting distinction between the U.S. and other developed countries is our preference for fixed-rate mortgages

  

Data as of June 2024

 

John Luke: which has helped make U.S. homeowners pretty immune to the rise in rates

 

Data as of June 2024

 

John Luke: Important to remember, forward yields are very tied to current yields. But lack the opportunity for growth!

 

 

 

Disclosures

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.

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Advisory services offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198.

Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama.

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