The Market in Pictures, June 7

by | Jun 7, 2024 | Blog, Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

Dave: The divergence between non farm payroll data and the household survey continues to be an example of the divergent thinking regarding economic strength

 

Source: Raymond James as of 06.06.2024

 

Dave: with the consumer continuing to spend at a decent pace

 

Source: Raymond James as of 06.03.2024

 

Brian: but GDP is tracking high or low depending on the week

 

Source: Aptus via Atlanta Fed

 

Brett: and the odds of a recession fall

Source: Apollo as of 06.06.2024

 

Arch: but some regional measures of manufacturing are falling deep into contraction territory

 

Data as of 05.31.2024

 

Beckham: and global measures are rising in unison

 

Source: S&P Global as of 06.03.2024

 

Joseph: but job openings in the US continuing to retreat from historic post-COVID highs

 

Data as of May 2024

 

 

Brad: Another area of divergence is in the contrast between megacap tech stocks and the broader market

 

 

Joseph: partly due to the impact of rates on the broader list of companies

 

Source: WSJ as of 06.04.2024

 

Brad: but also, just the incredible performance of NVDA and its contribution to S&P 500 returns

 

Source: Strategas as of 06.04.2024

 

Brett: and while the concentration is approaching extremes, the risk in the past has been when that concentration retreats

   

Data as of January 2024

 

Dave: Most important for stocks is that they grow their earnings, and trends are improving

  

Data as of 05.31.2024

 

Arch: which can hopefully start to offset the outsized impact rates have had on the broader market

  

Source: @matthew_miskin as of 06.03.2024

 

Dave: Presidential election years have generally been solid, but volatility has historically risen as the election approached

 

Data as of May 2024

 

Brad: that said, we’ve just entered the most favorable 3-month window of past election years

 

Data as of May 2024

 

Disclosures

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not financial advice or an offer to sell any product. The information contained herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed.

Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future financial performance of markets are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially.

This commentary offers generalized research, not personalized investment advice. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment services or performance. Nothing in this commentary should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future investment returns. All investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with an investment & tax professional before implementing any investment strategy. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.

Advisory services are offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198. Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama. ACA-2406-11.

Explore the Aptus Blog

Advisory services offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198.

Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama.

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aptus Capital Advisors (“Aptus”) and/or the individual Aptus Employee being interviewed as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Aptus reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs and there is no guarantee that such assessments of investments will be accurate. There is no guarantee that strategies or recommendations will equal or exceed any expectations or goals discussed. The discussions, outlook, and viewpoints featured are not intended to be investment advice and do not take into account specific client investment objectives.

The opinions expressed herein are those of Aptus Capital Advisors (“Aptus”) and are subject to change without notice.

Aptus social media posts, including third party material, are provided for information purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security, product or service. Aptus posts are based on data obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as being accurate and do not purport to be a complete summary of the available data. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Aptus does not endorse or take responsibility for any content, advertising, products, advice, opinions, recommendations, or other materials posted by followers or other third parties on Aptus’ social media sites. Any comments or opinions posted by another user should be attributed to that user and not Aptus.

Aptus is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Aptus including our investment strategies, fees and objectives can be found in our ADV Part 2, which is available at www.aptuscapitaladvisors.com or by calling 251.517.7198.

Enhancing Outcomes

Your job is to help clients meet their goals. Part of that is capturing the compounding power of markets, part is making sure the path matches client expectations. How portfolios get from point A to point B matters.