The Market in Pictures, October 4

by | Oct 4, 2024 | Blog, Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

 

John Luke: Between the Fed Chair and the jobs report, the market’s expectations of another 50 bps cut have gone from a tossup to “not happening”

 

Source: CME FedWatch Tool

 

JD: but the global trend of central bank easing is well underway

 

Data as of 09.27.2024

 

Beckham: The jobs report was another push away from summer recession fears

 


Data as of 10.02.2024

 

John Luke: with the consumer a key part of avoiding a real economic downturn

 

Data as of September 2024

 

John Luke: and supported by a persistently high level of saving

 

Data as of September 2024

 

Arch: Housing is a huge piece of most consumer balance sheets, especially as you go down the wealth scale

 

 

Beckham: and they’re benefitting from their ability to refinance mortgages in the 2020-2021 low rate window

 

Data as of September 2024

 

Joseph: which is a prime reason why it would seemingly take a further drop in mortgage rates to generate new mortgage activity

 

 

Brad: We’re heading into a seasonally strong period for stocks

 

 

John Luke: and they’ve historically responded well to rate-cutting cycles that have avoided recessions

 

 

Dave: Q3 earnings estimates have retreated in recent weeks as investors began worrying about the economy

 

Data as of 10.02.2024

 

Brad: leading to a flattish set of comparisons in Q3 relative to Q2

 

Data as of 10.02.2024

 

Brett: to an extent, this matches the history of earnings tracking along with interest rate cycles

 

Source: Societe Generale as of Sept 2024

 

John Luke: but like homeowners, large US companies took advantage of historically low rates to at least reduce the interest expense line item

 

 

Brad: Good reminder that investor mood changes often but growth is the consistent driver of what markets can ultimately deliver

 

 

Dave: and a reminder that the election winner has little impact on the long-term drivers of wealth

 

 

 

 

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Advisory services offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198.

Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama.

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