The Market in Pictures, September 6

by | Sep 6, 2024 | Blog, Charts

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:

Brian: Despite a rough start to the decade, US growth has actually exceeded pre-COVID projections

 

 

Beckham: though we’ve worked off most of the labor shortage in the past two years

 

Data as of August 2024

 

Arch: Construction spending fell in August for the first time since October 2022

 

Source: Daily Chartbook as of 09.04.2024

 

Brett: and signs of weakness are starting to show up in manufacturing data

 

Data as of 09.03.2024

 

John Luke: that said, survey data has often forecasted economic weakness that hasn’t followed through

 

Data as of 09.04.2024

 

John Luke: With most of the pre-FOMC data behind us, markets are sticking to forecasts of at least 100 bps of cuts this year and another 100 next year

 

Source: CME FedWatch Tool as of 09.06.2024

 

Dave: what’s interesting about that is the tendency for actual rate cuts to far exceed initial expectations

 

Source: Bloomberg as of 09.05.2024

 

John Luke: The closely-watched 2yr/10yr yield curve has finally broken its lengthy inversion

 

Data as of 09.05.2024

 

Brian: and the historic record for stocks after breaking the inversion is mixed

 

Data as of 09.03.2024

 

Brad: that said, history also says that where the economy lands is the most likely factor in good vs. bad outcomes for stocks

 

Data as of August 2024

 

Joseph: The infamous megacap tech stocks are not dominating the broader market the way they had

 

 

Dave: though they’ve contributed the lion’s share of gains in 2023 and 2024

 

 

Joseph: Crude oil is trading near its lowest levels of the past few years

 

Data as of 09.04.2024

 

Joseph: partly due to global growth concerns but also from major efficiencies gained in the production process

 

Data as of 09.03.2024

 

Brad: Q2 earnings season delivered the most volatile company reactions in years

 

Source: Goldman Sachs as of 08.30.2024

 

JD: speaking of volatility, leveraged ETFs are among the clearest examples of the “volatility tax” eating away at investor returns

 

Source: Bloomberg as of 09.03.2024

 

 

 

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Advisory services offered through Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level or skill or training. More information about the advisor, its investment strategies and objectives, is included in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2, which can be obtained, at no charge, by calling (251) 517-7198.

Aptus Capital Advisors, LLC is headquartered in Fairhope, Alabama.

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