by John Luke Tyner | Mar 11, 2025 | Blog, Market Updates
Given the recent market volatility, we wanted to share some thoughts on the evolving landscape and provide some opinions on what it means for volatility and markets. There is a lot of noise between Trump policy, DOGE, inflation, and monetary policy that is creating...
by John Luke Tyner | Mar 6, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
Atlanta Fed GDP Now Shows First Signs of GDP Sputtering in Several Years The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 came in at -2.8% on March 3, down from -1.5% on February 28. Following releases from...
by John Luke Tyner | Feb 21, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
Quantitative Tightening Ending Soon This week’s press about the Fed minutes release were the same: the Fed is worried about tariffs and is in no rush to lower rates. But beneath the headline the Fed signaled Quantitative Tightening (QT) for Treasuries is...
by John Luke Tyner | Feb 12, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
CPI rose 0.5% in January, above the 0.3% gain expected and an uptick from a 0.4% increase in December. Year-over-year, prices rose 3.0%, a tenth of a percentage point higher than expected and the fourth consecutive month of acceleration. Source: Stifel as of...
by John Luke Tyner | Feb 6, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
FOMC Update The January FOMC meeting went as expected (no rate cut). Chairman Powell offered limited forward guidance, stating that “we’re meaningfully above” the neutral rate for fed funds but countered that by noting the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates. ...
