by John Luke Tyner | Jan 10, 2025 | Blog, Bonds
The market is currently pricing in 1.53 cuts for 2025 (Fed says 2). As we’ve said before, we believe the FOMC has gotten its rate closer to neutral. This positions them to patiently sit back and monitor the economy and incoming data, specifically related to policy...
by John Luke Tyner | Dec 19, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
As expected, the Fed cut rates for a third time this year (100bps total), reducing the range for the Federal Funds target to 4.25-4.50%. The Committee signaled a significant reduction in its forecast for additional policy adjustments over the next 24 months as well as...
by John Luke Tyner | Dec 4, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
Insurance Cut in December is Likely…Then a Pause The jobs forecast from Linkup, a leading provider of labor demand data to the capital markets, indicates a marked slowing in the pace of hiring (and openings). This implies a smaller upward revision to October than...
by John Luke Tyner | Nov 21, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
The FOMC has eased 75 bps since September, but financial conditions have tightened about 25 bps since then due to the runup in real yields (the 10 year has backed up 80bps). Conditions are still “loose”, but not as loose as one might typically expect after 75 bps of...
by John Luke Tyner | Nov 8, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
As expected, the Fed opted to cut rates by 25bps in November, taking the Federal Funds rate to a range of 4.50% to 4.75%. Marking now the second consecutive reduction in rates, this month’s cut is a notably smaller reduction following the 50bps cut to initiate the...
