by John Luke Tyner | Dec 4, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
Insurance Cut in December is Likely…Then a Pause The jobs forecast from Linkup, a leading provider of labor demand data to the capital markets, indicates a marked slowing in the pace of hiring (and openings). This implies a smaller upward revision to October than...
by John Luke Tyner | Nov 21, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
The FOMC has eased 75 bps since September, but financial conditions have tightened about 25 bps since then due to the runup in real yields (the 10 year has backed up 80bps). Conditions are still “loose”, but not as loose as one might typically expect after 75 bps of...
by John Luke Tyner | Nov 8, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
As expected, the Fed opted to cut rates by 25bps in November, taking the Federal Funds rate to a range of 4.50% to 4.75%. Marking now the second consecutive reduction in rates, this month’s cut is a notably smaller reduction following the 50bps cut to initiate the...
by John Luke Tyner | Oct 24, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
The 10-year Treasury yield is up ~60 bps from the YTD lows seen just prior to the 50bp Fed cut on September 16. The widespread view is that the spike in rates is due to a combination of a) repricing the Fed’s rate cut path and b) the rising risk of a post-election...
by John Luke Tyner | Oct 11, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
September CPI Year-over-year, consumer prices rose 2.4%, a tenth of a percentage point more than expected but down from the 2.5% annual increase in August. 2.4% is the smallest annual gain since February 2021. Food prices rose 0.4%, while energy prices dropped...
