by John Luke Tyner | Apr 11, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
US inflation topped forecasts for a third straight month. Both the Core and the Headline consumer price index increased 0.4% from February. Source: Stifel as of 04.10.2024 March CPI: Headline: +0.4% (Exp: +0.3%) Core: +0.4% (Exp: +0.3%) YoY: Headline:...
by John Luke Tyner | Mar 27, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
Treasury Issuance Back at Pandemic Levels As we’ve noted over the last year, the current level of US fiscal deficits, given a strong economy and low unemployment, is uncharted territory. It was ironic that Phillip Swagel, director of the Congressional Budget...
by John Luke Tyner | Mar 21, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
The FOMC voted unanimously to leave their benchmark rate unchanged in the target range of 5.25%-5.5%. Source: Bloomberg as of 03.20.2024 The big surprise was the willingness of the Fed to maintain their projection for 3 rate cuts in 2024 even on the back...
by John Luke Tyner | Mar 13, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
Inflation Stabilizing Above 3% The U.S. CPI rose +0.4% m/m (3.2% y/y) & core (ex-food & energy) was +0.4% m/m (3.8% y/y) in February. The so-called “supercore” gauge slowed to 0.47% on the month, down from a red-hot 0.85% in January. The data is...
by John Luke Tyner | Feb 29, 2024 | Blog, Bonds
Productivity is the Way Out Productivity plays a crucial role in influencing both inflation and economic growth. A key to stopping a second wave of inflation is likely productivity (output per hour) picking up. Instead of having too much money chasing too few goods we...
