Pause Ahead in Rates and QT?

Insurance Cut in December is Likely…Then a Pause   The jobs forecast from Linkup, a leading provider of labor demand data to the capital markets, indicates a marked slowing in the pace of hiring (and openings). This implies a smaller upward revision to October than...

Rearview to Windshield, December 2024

Market Recap – November 2024: The market boasted its best month of the year, as market bulls believe that President-elect Donald Trump is the nominal GDP growth candidate. In a way, the market took the exact playbook from Trump 1.0 in November 2016 and transcribed it...

The Market in Pictures, November 29

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   Beckham: This year’s S&P 500 has been one of the steadier rises in recent history   Data as of...

Aptus Musings: Q3 2024 Earnings Recap

Given the breadth of questions that I’ve received on President-elect Trump’s cabinet picks I thought I’d start with some commentary. In my opinion, the market is not political. It doesn’t care about political views and rhetoric, suggested...

The Market in Pictures, November 22

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   Dave: Q3 earnings are generally behind us and the general tone was solid   Data as of 11.18.2024...

Around the Bond Market, November 2024

The FOMC has eased 75 bps since September, but financial conditions have tightened about 25 bps since then due to the runup in real yields (the 10 year has backed up 80bps). Conditions are still “loose”, but not as loose as one might typically expect after 75 bps of...