Election Season is Here

by | Aug 31, 2020 | Blog, Equity Research

We are not here to push a political platform, so let’s put the 2020 election into perspective for the stock market. Here are some quick facts:

  1. Historically, if stocks are higher in the three-month period preceding the election, the incumbent party has won, and if stocks are lower, the opposition party has won.
  2. Since 1952, no party has retained the White House when there was either a 20% decline or a recession during an election year.
  3. When the economy is in a recession on Election Day, the incumbent party has lost 80% of the time versus 32% when the economy was in expansion.
  4. President Trump sported a 38% approval rating. No president has been reelected with an approval rating that low at the end of June.

In a nutshell, history has not been kind to presidents facing economies and stock markets like 2020. The question is whether voters blame President Trump.

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