by John Luke Tyner | Sep 3, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
Last Friday morning at Jackson Hole, Chairman Warsh made the case that it’s hard to argue financial conditions are restrictive. As of Wednesday morning, the bond market has done some of the work for him. Below shows the move in yields since last Thursday’s...
by John Luke Tyner | Aug 28, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks provided the market with what participants hoped for: A more thorough view from the Fed on the economy and inflation, which appeared to satisfy investors’ concerns. Overall, I’d rate his comments as more hawkishly tilted than the...
by John Luke Tyner | Jul 30, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
The FOMC left the fed funds rate unchanged, with no action for the fifth consecutive meeting, even as inflation lingers above target. No change was the broad consensus; however, there were whispers of potential for a rate hike (the market was pricing about a 30%...
by John Luke Tyner | Jul 16, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
Every so often, you see a shift in the data that lines up with a transitional moment; this week’s developments could be that moment. We just had three instances that could change the “imminent Fed Hikes” narrative: a) Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony on Capitol...
by John Luke Tyner | Jun 18, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
The Federal Reserve left the Fed Funds rate unchanged in a 3.50%-3.75% range today, as expected. The dot-plot median forecast increased by 1/8 of a point this year and by ¼ point in both ‘27 and ’28. The longer-run median declined from 3.125% to 3.063%. Notably, there...
