by John Luke Tyner | Mar 27, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
Market Pricing Fed Hikes? The probability of a Fed hike in September has risen to nearly 60%. The 2-year Treasury topped 4% and is trading ~39bps above the target Fed funds rate (3.63%). Typically, you only see the 2 year this far above the fed funds rate when the...
by John Luke Tyner | Mar 12, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
February CPI: As Expected In February, the CPI rose 0.267% headline and 0.216% core, effectively matching the consensus of 0.3% and 0.2%. Year-on-year, the headline index was a tad higher, from 2.39% to 2.43%, while the core slipped a bit from 2.51% to 2.47%. Food...
by John Luke Tyner | Feb 13, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
Yield Curve Steepening Trend Continues The graphic below shows the shape of the current yield curve (black) vs. a month ago (red), and vs. 1 year ago (blue). As the Fed has reduced its policy rate, the yield curve has steepened due to the front end declining while...
by John Luke Tyner | Jan 30, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
January FOMC The Fed held its policy rate in the 3.5-3.75% range earlier this week, largely as expected. The vote was 10-2, where Governors Miran and Waller dissented in favor of a -25bp reduction (Bowman did not dissent). The Fed noted better growth and “some...
by John Luke Tyner | Jan 15, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
Another Cool-ish Inflation Report The CPI rose +0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y in Dec. The core (ex-food & energy) measure was +0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y. Source: Stifel as of 01.13.2026 Details of the report: Transportation services prices were flat, despite a...
