by John Luke Tyner | Jul 30, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
The FOMC left the fed funds rate unchanged, with no action for the fifth consecutive meeting, even as inflation lingers above target. No change was the broad consensus; however, there were whispers of potential for a rate hike (the market was pricing about a 30%...
by John Luke Tyner | Jul 16, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
Every so often, you see a shift in the data that lines up with a transitional moment; this week’s developments could be that moment. We just had three instances that could change the “imminent Fed Hikes” narrative: a) Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony on Capitol...
by John Luke Tyner | Jun 18, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
The Federal Reserve left the Fed Funds rate unchanged in a 3.50%-3.75% range today, as expected. The dot-plot median forecast increased by 1/8 of a point this year and by ¼ point in both ‘27 and ’28. The longer-run median declined from 3.125% to 3.063%. Notably, there...
by John Luke Tyner | May 29, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
Treasury Curve Movements The yield curve today looks drastically different than the beginning of the year. The largest increases have occurred in the belly of the yield curve, with 2s rising the most at a 59 bp increase since the start of the year, with lesser...
by John Luke Tyner | May 14, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
Core CPI (ex-food and energy) rose 0.38% in April after rising 0.20% in March. The Year over Year (YoY) Core rose from 2.60% to 2.74%. Headline CPI was up 0.64% on the heels of a 0.87% increase in March, both months elevated by higher fuel prices. YoY CPI inflation...
