by John Luke Tyner | May 29, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
Treasury Curve Movements The yield curve today looks drastically different than the beginning of the year. The largest increases have occurred in the belly of the yield curve, with 2s rising the most at a 59 bp increase since the start of the year, with lesser...
by John Luke Tyner | May 14, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
Core CPI (ex-food and energy) rose 0.38% in April after rising 0.20% in March. The Year over Year (YoY) Core rose from 2.60% to 2.74%. Headline CPI was up 0.64% on the heels of a 0.87% increase in March, both months elevated by higher fuel prices. YoY CPI inflation...
by John Luke Tyner | Mar 27, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
Market Pricing Fed Hikes? The probability of a Fed hike in September has risen to nearly 60%. The 2-year Treasury topped 4% and is trading ~39bps above the target Fed funds rate (3.63%). Typically, you only see the 2 year this far above the fed funds rate when the...
by John Luke Tyner | Mar 12, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
February CPI: As Expected In February, the CPI rose 0.267% headline and 0.216% core, effectively matching the consensus of 0.3% and 0.2%. Year-on-year, the headline index was a tad higher, from 2.39% to 2.43%, while the core slipped a bit from 2.51% to 2.47%. Food...
by John Luke Tyner | Feb 13, 2026 | Blog, Bonds
Yield Curve Steepening Trend Continues The graphic below shows the shape of the current yield curve (black) vs. a month ago (red), and vs. 1 year ago (blue). As the Fed has reduced its policy rate, the yield curve has steepened due to the front end declining while...
