Rate Talk into the Election

The 10-year Treasury yield is up ~60 bps from the YTD lows seen just prior to the 50bp Fed cut on September 16. The widespread view is that the spike in rates is due to a combination of a) repricing the Fed’s rate cut path and b) the rising risk of a post-election...

Econ Data Not Bond-Friendly

September CPI   Year-over-year, consumer prices rose 2.4%, a tenth of a percentage point more than expected but down from the 2.5% annual increase in August. 2.4% is the smallest annual gain since February 2021. Food prices rose 0.4%, while energy prices dropped...

Around the Bond Market, September 2024

September 11th   We take a moment at Aptus today to remember the lives lost on this tragic day 23 years ago. We are grateful for the men and women who make the enormous sacrifice to keep our nation safe. Never forget!   August CPI Update   This morning U.S....
How Do You Define Safe?

How Do You Define Safe?

Brian wrote a post last week that’s relevant to this month’s writeup. It’s worth a few minutes of your time as it provides perspective around how you should think about investing your hard earned money: The Lost Century in Bonds. Volatility is not risk, and the...

Jackson Hole for Now, What About DC?

Rate Cut Expectations   All eyes are on Jay Powell this week in Jackson Hole as he lays out the FOMC plan for the upcoming rate cut cycle. As of now, the market is pricing in ~1.25 cuts (roughly 31bps), basically a 25bps cut. Over the past weeks, we’ve bounced...