Peak Funds Rate, For Longer

Fed chair Powell (and many other FOMC members) have made it clear that as of today, the Fed intends to:   Slow down the pace of hikes Reach a higher peak rate than it thought in September Stay at peak for longer than normal   How long will policy remain...

Rearview to Windshield, November 2022

October 2022 Market Recap: The market ended the month +8.1% in October, as Q3 earnings season looks to be a complete redux of Q2 earnings season. There has been earnings weakness, but largely not as bad as feared in aggregate, while the market seems to be focused on...

The Market in Pictures, September 23

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and how they help fill the puzzle of evidence:   John Luke: This year already ranks with some of the worst modern markets for the frequency of big down days...

FOMC September 2022: Another Big Hike

As expected, the Federal Reserve opted to raise rates 75bps, taking the target range to 3.00% to 3.25%, with a total of 300bps in policy adjustments since March…the fastest rise over a seven-month span in four decades. Coming into today, the debate was between 75bps...

FOMC March 16th, 2022

And…We Have Lift Off   As expected, the Fed raised the overnight target rate 25 bps to 0.25% – 0.50%. The market had priced seven hikes this year prior to the meeting, and the Fed delivered. For some time now, the market has been pulling the Fed in its...