February 2023 CPI Update

Consumer prices rose in February by the most in 5 months, although the move was roughly in line with expectations. Headline CPI number moved lower to 6.0% YoY as the February 0.4% print replaced last year’s 0.7% print.   Source: Bianco. As of 3/14/23.   Next...

Bank Bailout

2 Years a Movin’   To give some perspective on the move in Fed Funds rate the last couple days, we have just witnessed one of the fastest/ largest slides since 1987.   Source: Bloomberg. As of 3/13/23.   The chart above shows Fed Funds curve last...

Fleeting Bond Rally

While bonds got off to a fast start this year, February’s returns were almost the mirror image from a total return standpoint. As the chart shows, Bloomberg’s Global Aggregate Index returned -3.32% last month. With data going back to March 1990, this ranks as the...

The Market in Pictures, February 17

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   John Luke: It’s been awhile since 5% rates were an option for investors, things looked different back...

Market Finally Getting the Point?

The blue line below is what the Fed is communicating per their DOT plot, on the terminal rate going to a range of 5.00% to 5.25%. The orange line is yesterday’s Fed Funds curve (following CPI). The market expectations for the Fed Funds rate is finally rising to the...