The Market in Pictures, February 23

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   John Luke: Rate expectations have changed dramatically in a few short weeks   Data as of 02.23.2024...

The Market in Pictures, February 9

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   John Luke: Market expectations for 2024 interest rate cuts are slowly moving back towards FOMC guidance...

The Market in Pictures, February 2

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   John Luke: Before the FOMC meeting, markets took comfort that Treasury borrowing needs wouldn’t expand in...

Inflation Volatility Unlikely to Disappear

Market is Pricing in Six Rates Cuts in 2024   Currently, Fed Funds traders are pricing in six cuts (shown below in orange) by the end of 2024. Keep in mind that the Fed projected just three cuts in its latest Summary of Economic Projections (shown below in blue)....

December CPI: Shelter Prices Still the Driver

The U.S. Headline CPI for December rose +0.3% m/m (3.4% y/y) and the core CPI (ex: food & energy) was +0.3% m/m (3.9% y/y).   Source: BLS/Stifel as of 01.11.2024   Inflation came in slightly above expectations in December. Core inflation is being aided by...