The Market in Pictures, March 24

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   John Luke: The market sure seems to think the Fed is done hiking   Source: Bianco as of 03.22.2023...

The Current Opportunity Set in Bonds

Municipal Spreads are Lacking Luster   Spreads on short municipal paper (10yrs and in) are well inside their historic averages.    Source: UBS. As of March 17th, 2023.   Municipal Supply Remains Tight   The expected muni supply coming to market is...

The Market in Pictures, March 17

Our team looks at a lot of research throughout each day. A few charts that caught our eye this week, and the way they fit the unfolding puzzle of evidence:   Derek: Hopefully the first and last time we need to share SIVB charts, but in hindsight it stood out...

Aptus Musings: Banking on Deposits

I hope that y’all have not had PTSD 2.0 of the GFC over the last few days. The KBW Regional Banking Index (KRE) is having its worst week since … October 2008. We had to break out the textbooks on my last musing (ERP), so I’ll do my best to keep this as simple as...

Aptus Musings: Equity Risk Premium (ERP)

I’ve fielded a few questions regarding Mike Wilson’s (of Morgan Stanley) recent market commentary. Outside of corporate profitability, i.e., margins driving down future earnings, one of his biggest takes is on the current valuation of the S&P 500. As of 3/7/23,...