Our team looks at a lot of research throughout the day. This week’s charts weigh a rate-and-calendar risk creeping back into focus against an earnings and labor backdrop still doing the heavy lifting, with the AI buildout showing no signs of slowing. Have a great weekend!
John Fox: Since 1980, the S&P has averaged a 10.7% full-year return, while drawing down an average 14.1% along the way. Good years and rough rides aren’t mutually exclusive.
John Luke: One of the biggest stories of 2026 has been the rise of the 10-year Treasury yield and resilience of stocks. Historically, when rates were below 5%, stocks performed well when bonds sold off. That 5% threshold is worth watching as yields climb back toward it.
Ten: VIX spikes are running more frequently since rates started normalizing relative to the low-rate era.
Derek: The S&P has peaked for the year in August just 5.7% of the time since 1950. Some may say this implies history isn’t on the bulls’ side this month, but it could also mean we still have plenty of room to run before the year ends.
Beckham: Why are investors bullish? Consensus now has S&P 500 earnings growing 30.2% this year, nearly 4x the long-run average of 8.3%.
Brett: Dominant fundamentals have pushed the United States to a near-record share of the MSCI All-Country World Index.
JD: Interest rates have been driven by inflation, but there are signs inflation is on the verge of cooling, with average hourly earnings growth down to 3.15% year-over-year, the lowest print of the cycle. That gives the Fed more room to work with.
Dave: The negative aspect is that the normalization of wages may be due to employment decoupling from the CAPEX boom, with employment growth tracking below nonresidential fixed investment for the first time in years.
Brad: The scale hyperscaler CAPEX growth within overall investment continues to move higher, which is on pace to hit $1.3 trillion by 2028, more than 8x where it stood just five years ago.
Mike: Headlines have focused on datacenter buildouts being held up by political pushback, but datacenters that broke ground in 2026 are tracking ahead of the estimated 28-month build timeline, not behind it.
Brett: How much this buildout will be funded by record equity issuance is still unknown, and while we’re already at record levels in nominal terms, it’s still just 1% of the Russell 3000 market cap in line with 2015-2019 norms.
Mark: While this chart is a bit stale, it remains important in terms of what has been driving the market. Active management’s share of total trading has fallen from 80% in 1995 to just 10% today. Passive and speculative flows now set the tape.
Brian: Often forgotten is how wealthy the United States truly is. Every single US state out-consumes every foreign economy on earth.
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